Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is one of the most significant geopolitical events of the past several decades. It has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, tens of billions of dollars in economic losses, and altered the generally respected post-1945 norm against the settlement of territorial disputes by military conquest. Had former President Donald Trump remained in office for a second term, Russia’s invasion would not have happened.
Early actions by the Biden-Harris administration certainly signaled to Russian President Vladimir Putin that his plans for Ukraine would be unopposed by the United States. Generally, there was President Joe Biden’s turning away from Trump’s “peace through strength” foreign policy, demonstrated by the president’s calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan, his pleas to Iran to return to the Iran Nuclear Deal, and his abandonment of sanctions enforcement against the Islamic Republic. Specific to Russia, the Biden-Harris administration reversed Trump’s opposition to the Nord Stream II pipeline and suggested the U.S. would turn a blind eye to a “minor [Russian] incursion” into Ukraine. All of these factors contributed to the breakdown of deterrence.
What is often overlooked in the effort to understand why Putin moved against Ukraine in 2022 is how the Trump administration spent the prior four years strengthening Ukraine and deterring Putin’s ambitions in eastern Europe. The Trump approach could not have been more different than the new Biden-Harris policies or the Obama-Biden administration’s weak diplomatic response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and assault on Donetsk and Luhansk. Trump instead undertook a concerted effort to bolster Ukrainian defense capabilities, preparing the country for a new round of Russian adventurism.
In fact, in a reversal of the Obama-Biden administration’s refusal to provide lethal aid to Ukraine, Trump approved Javelin anti-tank missile sales to Kyiv in both 2017 and 2019. These weapons were used with precision against Russia’s armored columns in the early days of the 2022 invasion. They were the weapons used by the brave Ukrainian soldiers that blunted Putin’s blitzkrieg and saved Kyiv.
In 2019 alone, the Trump administration provided $250 million in military aid to Ukraine. Trump also approved the sale of sophisticated anti-sniper systems to Kyiv. Trump signed into law the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which increased U.S. support for the training and equipping of Ukrainian forces. In 2020, Trump approved the sale of Mark VI patrol boats to Kyiv. Those boats have played an important role in Ukraine’s impressive naval performance during the war. Other lethal systems were also shipped to Ukraine. The U.S. and Ukraine also deepened their military cooperation through major exercises, such as Sea Breeze.
Throughout his four years in office, Trump expanded sanctions against Russians involved in Putin’s earlier 2014 aggression against Ukraine. Hundreds of Russians complicit in Moscow’s crimes were targeted financially throughout Trump’s term, putting additional pressure on Moscow.
Diplomatically, the Trump administration publicly stated its opposition to Russia’s unlawful seizure of Crimea and demanded its return to Kyiv. Trump strongly supported the Minsk Agreements, with the goal of ending conflict in Ukraine’s occupied Eastern territories. He also advocated the inclusion of Ukraine in the Three Seas Initiative, a plan designed to improve infrastructure and energy security in central and eastern Europe.
Words matter, but actions matter more. Our adversaries gauge what we do when deciding whether to pursue malign activities. The Trump administration acted decisively to reverse the failure of the Obama-Biden administration to effectively respond to Moscow’s prior aggression against Ukraine. Trump’s action and leadership deterred Russian aggression while he was in office and gave Ukraine the tools it needed to defend itself against Russia’s initial thrust into the country in 2022.
Ending Russia’s current war with Ukraine requires a return to American strength. Only then will there be peace in Ukraine.
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Robert O’Brien served as U.S. national security adviser, and Alexander Gray served as chief of staff of the White House National Security Council from 2019 to 2021.