President Joe Biden has accused former President Barack Obama of an inadequate response to Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 that simply encouraged further aggression. Unfortunately, Biden is repeating the mistakes of his former boss by failing to provide Ukraine with the firepower it needs to defeat one of America’s chief adversaries. He is also turning NATO into an institution of self-deterrence by restraining allies from engaging in self-defense.
Contrary to Moscow’s incessant propaganda, NATO is not a threat to Russia’s security or integrity, but is turning into an alliance that prevents Russia’s defeat. One of the Kremlin’s main justifications for invading Ukraine was that the country was poised to join NATO. In fact, NATO has never given Ukraine a clear pathway to membership despite overwhelming support for accession among citizens following Russia’s invasion.
While NATO provides protection for each member, it also keeps all allies in check, especially when the United States, the largest military power, is adamantly opposed to some initiative. Hence, Washington, D.C., and several European capitals have restrained Ukraine from using long-range weapons supplied by NATO to destroy Russia’s military and energy facilities. Instead, Kyiv is reliant on its home-produced missiles and drones to strike targets deep inside Russia. Meanwhile, allies such as Germany and France hide under America’s coattails and exhibit an abject failure to defend Europe by allowing Ukraine to decimate Russia’s logistics.
Similarly, the larger NATO members have prevented Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states from responding directly to Russian threats when Moscow has fired missiles over their territory or violated their air space or maritime borders. Instead of giving Poland and Romania the green light to deploy their air defense systems to shoot down Russian drones and missiles, White House fears of “escalation” actually ensure that Russia escalates with impunity against Ukraine and humiliates NATO’s frontline states.
None of the territorially exposed NATO members will take the risk of alienating Washington, D.C., in any confrontation with Russia, as they are ultimately dependent on U.S. military support and do not trust their West European allies. And it is understandable that the U.S. does not want any ally to overreact to threats and launch a response that could pull the wider alliance into outright war. However, NATO cannot be allowed to neutralize the vital national security interests of its members and embolden further Russian incursions.
The Biden administration has demonstrated its paranoia about Russia by failing to provide Kyiv with all necessary weapons. It has also engaged in disputes with Poland and other states that realized in the early days of the war that fighter jets, long-range missiles, and other effective weapons were urgently needed by Ukraine to deter and defeat the Russian invasion.
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When elected, either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will have a unique opportunity to break the cycle of failed U.S. policies toward Moscow by more comprehensively helping Ukraine defeat the Russian invaders. There are growing indications that Russia’s military capabilities are facing a crisis in 2025. A combination of poorly trained recruits, the massive loss of elite units, a shrinking ability to replenish destroyed equipment, and mounting financial burdens can tip the scales toward Ukraine in the coming year.
Despite Biden’s fears of a Russian defeat and Trump’s eagerness to make deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine will not precipitate World War III. And Moscow will not resort to nuclear weapons and state suicide, especially as its senior partner, China, seeks to avoid any global conflict that would threaten its global economic interests. In such auspicious conditions, the next U.S. president must take resolute action to help vanquish and sideline Russia and substantially weaken the global anti-American alliance.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book published this fall is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.