For however much Vice President Kamala Harris has succeeded in more than doubling her margin of support among white college-educated voters relative to Joe Biden‘s 9-percentage-point victory among the demographic in the 2020 election, it is difficult to overstate just how dramatic the vice president is underperforming her boss’s past performance with non-white voters.
In a stunning series of findings by one of the most accurate pollsters in the business, the New York Times-Siena College poll found that an overt majority of Hispanic men nationally are now supporting former President Donald Trump for the presidency, with Harris running nearly 10 points behind Biden’s performance with Hispanic men and a staggering 17 points behind the lame-duck president’s support with black men.
A majority of Hispanic men say that they support building Trump’s proposed wall along the southern border and “deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries.” More than half of Hispanic men and 22% of black men say they view Harris unfavorably. While more than three-quarters of black voters report supporting Harris overall, that margin lags more than 12% behind Biden’s support among black voters. Harris’s 83% support from black women is 12 points behind Biden’s 2020 margin, and her 72% support from black voters younger than 30 is 20 points behind Biden’s 2020 margin. And whereas Biden performed about as well among college-educated black and Hispanic voters as he did with non-college-educated voters of each demographic, Harris is running 13 points behind Biden’s 2020 performance with non-college-educated black voters, and non-college-educated Hispanic voters are nearly breaking even for Trump.
The polls seem to indicate just why Harris is flailing with black men and failing with Hispanic men. Nearly half of all Hispanic and black men reported the economy, inflation, and immigration as the most important issues in the election, and despite the Harris campaign’s overwhelming reliance on abortion promotion to galvanize support, Hispanic men polled in Florida actually opposed the state’s Amendment 4, which would legalize abortion until at least halfway through a pregnancy, by a 19-point margin. Black men are also 10 points less likely than black women to agree that Harris is “fun,” a “strong leader,” “would help you personally” or “people likely you,” or “cares about people like you.” Furthermore, black men express much greater ambivalence over abortion politics, with a slim majority opposed to or undecided about Amendment 4, and a 53% majority of black men also support deporting illegal immigrants.
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It’s possible that the Karen constituency that the Harris campaign has almost exclusively catered to manages to save her candidacy. Harris has consistently secured double-digit margins among white college graduates and women overall, with NBC News finding a stratospheric 40-point lead among white college-educated women, a demographic that turns out to vote with militant regularity.
But it’s a gamble, and if Harris snubbing the backbone of her party’s coalition in favor of wealthier white ladies costs her the election, the Democratic strategy for the past half-century could be shattered for a generation.