Congratulations are in order for Taiwan, which is celebrating its 113th birthday this week. This small and flourishing island democracy is a testament to human courage and innovation. Taiwan’s success is hard-earned.
Consider the fact that Russia has numerous land borders and is 472 times larger in geographic size with a population of more than six times Taiwan’s. However, Russia’s economy is only 2.5 times larger than Taiwan’s. Why? Where Russia has trusted in autocratic kleptocracy and corruption, Taiwan has trusted in the capitalist rule of law. This trust has paid off in Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor chip manufacturing and electronics industries. Trusting only what has worked in the past, however, won’t get Taiwan to its 120th birthday.
Lai Ching-te, president of the Republic of China, declared Thursday, “On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving. The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.”
These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can’t shoot down missiles. In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem.
After all, in China, Taiwan faces a far more powerful neighbor, which believes that its very existence is an affront to history and destiny. Chinese President Xi Jinping, leader of the Chinese Communist Party, believes Taiwan must be brought to heel sooner rather than later. Xi has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to accomplish that objective via force by 2027. Xi isn’t playing games.
For Xi, taking Taiwan is the defining test of both his and the CPP’s destiny. If Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty is extinguished, Xi and his party will perceive themselves set upon securing a century of global dominance. However, Taiwan’s sustained democratic sovereignty will be a festering sore. This perception underlines why most U.S. military and intelligence analysts believe Xi will order an invasion of Taiwan by 2030.
There’s no question that Xi is preparing for action. The PLA is churning out warships, troop transports, missiles, and drones at a truly vast scale. The PLA is also bolstering its nuclear forces. Xi wants to be able to deter U.S. military intervention in the event of an attack on Taiwan by making clear that such an intervention would carry a very bloody cost. China is building its ability to smash U.S. aircraft carriers and Guam with dozens of anti-ship ballistic missiles, overwhelm U.S. Air Force fighters and bombers, and use cyberattacks to shut down the power, water, and other utilities that people in the U.S. rely upon if the United States were to intervene. Put simply, when China thinks about Taiwan, it isn’t thinking about patient diplomacy.
Neither the U.S. nor Taiwan is thinking seriously enough about their defenses against Xi’s threat.
The U.S. defense budget is far too small to handle the much-needed defense industrial boosts needed to deter and, if necessary, face down China with new warships and weapons. The crisis in the Middle East has also absorbed significant U.S. military resources, further worsening its readiness to deal with China-related contingencies.
Most concerning, however, is Taiwan. Consider the key metric of defense spending. Facing an unveiled Russian imperialist threat to its sovereignty, Poland will spend 4.12% of its GDP on defense in 2024. That figure will rise to nearly 4.7% in 2025. This is significantly more than the NATO 2%-of-GDP target and the U.S. defense budget (2.9%-of-GDP). In contrast, Taiwan will spend just 2.5% of GDP on defense next year. As the Washington Examiner‘s Tom Rogan has put it, “Poland exemplifies why Americans should support it and NATO. Poland’s defense policy sends the message: ‘We’ll fight forward and aggressively with you at zero hour.’ Taiwan’s defense policy sends the message: ‘It’s America’s job to keep our nation alive.’”
While Taiwan is increasing defense spending, it is doing so only marginally. Two point five percent of GDP defense spending would be positive for countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan, which face rising threats. However, for a country that faces a near-term existential threat, a 2.5% of GDP defense budget is a sad joke.
This is the tip of the iceberg. Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on platforms that lack agility and survivability. A poll released this week found that while 68% of Taiwanese would be “very” or “somewhat” willing to fight in defense of their country, 24% would not be. This matters because you can bet that the 68% figure would decline if hundreds of Chinese missiles and aircraft were rocketing around the skies on the first day of any conflict.
This reality is gravely dangerous to Taiwan for another reason. It risks playing into the hands of a figure such as former President Donald Trump, who might decide that if Taiwan is insufficiently serious about defending itself, it is also insufficiently deserving of the thousands of U.S. soldiers dead that would be required to save it. This is no small consideration, being that U.S. war games over Taiwan often see the PLA triumph even in the face of the U.S. military’s fully deployed might.
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Again, Taiwan deserves the happy birthday celebrations it has earned through its people’s perseverance and skill. However, it also deserves a louder wake-up call from the U.S.
If Taiwan wants the U.S. to fight with it when its worst day arrives, it needs to get far more serious about preparing for that fight.