HOW MANY REPUBLICANS SUPPORT HARRIS AND HOW MANY DEMOCRATS SUPPORT TRUMP? There’s an odd number in the new New York Times-Siena College national poll of the presidential race. The survey found Vice President Kamala Harris with a 3-point lead, 49% to 46%, over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide. The strange number concerned how many Republicans support Harris.
When asked for whom they would vote if the election were held today, 96% of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for Harris, while 3% said they would vote for Trump. That seems about right. Democrats are obviously enthusiastic about the Harris candidacy in a way they were not about President Joe Biden before a secretive group of party power brokers forced him out of the race.
But on the other side, the Republican side, just 89% of likely voters said they would vote for Trump, while 9% said they would vote for Harris. If you listen to the Harris campaign, you’ll hear talk about a wave of Republicans coming to their senses, abandoning Trump, and pledging their support to Harris. Yes, there have been a few prominent Republican or former Republican endorsements of Trump, such as former Rep. Liz Cheney and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney. But not that many in the big picture.
Which means the new poll number seems a little funky. Yes, Trump is controversial, and yes, those few high-profile Republicans have endorsed Harris. But in other polls, Trump has GOP support well over 90%.
If accurate, the new number represents a change from earlier New York Times-Siena College polling. Just last month, when the poll found the national race tied, 47% to 47%, it showed Democratic support of Harris at 94%, with 4% for Trump, and 92% of Republicans supporting Trump, with 5% for Harris. Before that, an earlier poll in September found Harris at 93%-4%, and Trump at 94%-5%. Even earlier, just after Harris became a candidate, the numbers were essentially the same.
So the question is, does the new poll represent a change, represent more Republicans now saying they’ll vote for Harris? Maybe. But maybe not. In the same poll, the pollsters identified respondents by whom they voted for in 2020. Of the people who voted for Trump, 95% support Trump now. Of the people who voted for Biden in 2020, 94% support Harris now. That suggests the “89% of Republicans support Trump” number might be too low.
The Trump team believes it is. It also believes Trump is a particularly appealing candidate for people who have not voted before, even though the latest New York Times-Siena College poll shows the race tied, 45% to 45%, among people who did not vote in 2020. There are still people out there who have never voted at all, and Trump is going for their support.
These numbers are just a tiny part of the much larger polling mystery of the 2024 presidential race. It’s just hard to say much about the race beyond the fact that it seems basically tied. Partisans on both sides want to see the momentum behind their candidate, but it’s just not clear what, precisely, is going on.