The North Carolina gubernatorial campaign of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) has all of the hallmarks of a train wreck that is only getting worse.
On Thursday, CNN reported damning information about Robinson’s activity on pornographic websites where he made numerous disparaging and offensive comments, including that he was a “black Nazi,” and enjoyed watching transgender pornography.
Robinson dubiously denies the allegations and has vowed to stay in the race, but for a candidate who has consistently trailed his Democratic opponent, state attorney general Josh Stein, the revelations of his online activity will do him no favors in a race he is widely expected to lose at this point.
But even as conventional wisdom indicates that the scandal-ridden Robinson is headed toward a historic defeat in a key swing-state gubernatorial race, any expectation that he is going to lose is premature. And the reason has nothing to do with him.
Unlike most states, which hold their gubernatorial elections in intervening years, North Carolina is one of only a handful of states that holds its gubernatorial election at the same time as the presidential race. And in presidential years, the top of the ticket drives the campaign as voters associate the two political parties with their respective presidential candidates.
That was not always the case. It used to be commonplace to see governors and senators from one party, even as their respective states backed presidential candidates from the other party. But for most of the 21st century, this practice of ticket splitting has seriously declined. During the last two presidential elections, voters have supported Senate and presidential candidates only once, when Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) won reelection in 2020 while President Joe Biden carried the state of Maine at the presidential level.
But in races for state government, ticket splitting has endured to a degree. In the two elections to date that featured former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, North Carolina sent a Democrat to the governor’s mansion both times, even as Trump carried the state.
However, there is reason to expect that, in 2024, the decline of ticket splitting may impact the gubernatorial race and Stein’s 10-percentage-point lead in the polls may prove to be more of a mirage than expected despite Robinson’s baggage.
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It is entirely likely and indeed probable that Trump will outrun Robinson by several percentage points. Polls now show the presidential race in the state as a dead heat between the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris.
But in an era where partisan divides are more pronounced than ever, voters have shown less and less willingness to vote for candidates from both parties in the same year. If Trump carries North Carolina on election night, his presence at the top of the ticket may be enough to drag Robinson’s long-decaying corpse of a campaign to the finish line in what would be an unexpected but predictable upset.