Decoding Vladimir Putin’s US election mind games

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Speaking at an economic forum in far-eastern Russia on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered his support for Vice President Kamala Harris‘s presidential candidacy.

Claiming that the outcome of the Nov. 5 election “is still the choice of the American people,” Putin continued, “I have already said, our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. So we will do the same; we will support her.”

Grinning, Putin then added, “She laughs so expressively and infectiously that it means that everything is fine with her. … Trump has introduced so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia, such a quantity that no president has ever introduced before. And if everything is fine with Ms. Harris, then maybe she will refrain from actions of this kind.”

Putin is playing games.

The reference to Harris’s laugh is a play to the perception that said laugh is disingenuous or forced. It is a thinly veiled insult designed to make both Russians and Republican voters themselves laugh. It’s also a very pro forma Russian insult to Harris. Putin is essentially telling Harris that she’s out of her league and a clownish pretender to the throne. Indeed, Putin applied a similar tactic toward then-President Donald Trump when he threw a soccer ball to Trump during the two leaders’ meeting in Helsinki in 2018.

Whether it’s Trump or Harris, Putin’s insults here reflect his fetish for psychological games. What the Russians refer to as “operational psychology” or “psychometric analysis” was a staple of training for KGB officers such as Putin. Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service now develops various psychological assessments of foreign leaders in the same vein. These assessments are often far more creative than the comparative leadership assessments by Western intelligence services such as the CIA.

As an extension, just as Putin reveled in stoking former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s fear of dogs, he likely believes Harris is self-conscious about her laugh. His comments reflect an effort to get under her skin. Whether incidental or not, Putin’s comments have also clearly gotten under Trump’s skin. Commenting on Putin’s endorsement of Harris, Trump was visibly flummoxed.

What of Putin’s claim that he wants Harris to win?

Don’t bet on it. While it’s true that Putin previously suggested a preference for President Joe Biden’s reelection, that statement belies his actual preference for Trump’s return to the Oval Office. Putin is no idiot. He knows that by expressing support for Trump, he would only galvanize independents, Democrats, and some Republicans to support Biden or, as now is the case, Harris. Yes, Trump took robust action against Russia in certain areas. Prior to the February 2022 start of the war in Ukraine, Trump provided greater support to that country than did Biden. The Kremlin was deeply frustrated by these actions.

Still, Putin still wants Trump back in office because he believes Trump is more malleable to his manipulations. He senses an opportunity to take advantage of Trump’s fear of escalation with Russia over Ukraine and Trump’s belief that NATO excuses the freeloading of allies, hence why the Russian intelligence services have been supporting American conservative commentators who promote views in this vein. Putin also remembers how Trump left U.S. military bases and a weaponry gold mine in Russia’s hands when Trump precipitously withdrew American forces from Syria.

In contrast, Putin believes Harris is a more predictable American politician who will be more hostile to his agenda.

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Ultimately, Putin is an ardent American adversary. Seeking to manipulate American leaders and voters in Russia’s favor, his primary interest is in weakening American democratic stability and thus U.S. global influence and power.

His words on American politics should never be taken at face value.

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