Former President Donald Trump has lost message discipline while on the campaign trail.
Earlier this summer, Trump had demonstrated a level of rhetorical control that many thought was impossible for the famously unvarnished candidate. Heading into the June debate, the Trump campaign centered its strategy around President Joe Biden’s record on immigration and the economy. Because Trump focused on matters where he performed well with voters, many of the conventional Democratic criticisms of him fell flat.
The Biden campaign attempted to portray Trump as a “threat to democracy.” These messages would have been stronger if Trump’s rhetoric had played into them. For instance, the former president’s constant questioning of the legitimacy of the 2020 elections turned many voters off from supporting him and his movement. This was seen in Republican underperformance in the 2022 midterm elections despite strong electoral fundamentals swinging in their direction.
The distaste many voters had for Trump following the 2020 and 2022 elections led him to his most vulnerable point in his political career. But Trump rebounded and immediately declared his presidential campaign after the midterm elections.
The following Republican primary demonstrated that his strong political base remained, and he successfully consolidated the party under his leadership.
The climax of this message discipline came after the attempt on his life on July 13. He changed his Republican National Convention speech and promoted a message of unity at the convention. However, the convention also showed signs that the proposed message discipline would not continue.
First, for a party convention, many strange characters were invited to speak. Speakers such as OnlyFans model Amber Rose and WWE star Hulk Hogan were not exactly normal political orators. While voters appreciate political outsiders, it is unlikely many found their appearances appealing.
Moreover, Trump himself rambled during his supposed “unity speech.” While the first 15 minutes or so were good, he proceeded to ramble off-script for well over an hour afterward.
But still, Trump demonstrated more restraint than usual and performed well in the polls. This changed when Biden dropped out of the race, and Harris became the assumed Democratic nominee.
The Trump campaign had been preparing for this transition, but its planned rhetorical moves have not been working. Their attempts to criticize the Democrats’ undemocratic coronation of Harris have not worked among voters. The pro-Harris blitz in the media has also helped her improve in the polls.
In response, Trump has increasingly gone off course. He has questioned Harris’s racial identity, bringing back more memories of his Obama birtherism conspiracy theories to voters’ minds. Now other members of the party are also entertaining this idea at his rally’s speeches. These kinds of strange conspiracy theories are the exact things that make independent voters run away from Trump. If the former president wants to win in November, he and his campaign need to focus their message and not remind voters of what they hate about Trump. November will arrive sooner than we think.