Ukraine escalates sabotage operations ahead of counteroffensive
Tom Rogan
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In advance of a likely counteroffensive against Russian forces in southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are escalating their attacks in what’s known as “the deep battlespace” area behind enemy lines. These actions are designed to complicate any Russian response to Ukraine’s main offensive. As the Washington Examiner first reported last August, Ukrainian deep battlespace operations have been heavily influenced by British special forces advisers.
Ukraine’s shaping operations in the deep battlespace were encapsulated by the Saturday drone strikes against an oil depot on the Crimean Peninsula. This operation degraded Russia’s already overwhelmed logistics network in the region — a nice touch since Ukrainian forces are likely to push toward the peninsula in their offensive. But the video footage of blazing fires sparked by the drones will also impose a psychological blow on Russian forces and give a morale boost to their Ukrainian counterparts.
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This is just the start, however.
On Tuesday, we saw the sabotage bombing of a Russian freight transport in Russia’s Bryansk region, 70 miles north of northern Ukraine. Multiple containers were derailed. A separate explosion targeted a different area of railway on Monday, also causing a derailment. While Bryansk is far from where Ukraine’s counteroffensive is likely to focus, it is an important logistics hub for Russian forces.
These successive strikes illustrate that Ukrainian saboteurs are operating behind Russian lines with freedom of action in areas that sit on the major highway approaches to Moscow. Again, this will boost Ukrainian morale and degrade Russian morale in advance of the counteroffensive — and morale is a systemic concern for Russian forces.
It’s not clear when and where the Ukrainians will launch their offensive. Nevertheless, a push to sever Crimea from Russian forces on the Ukrainian mainland makes the most strategic sense. Taking advantage of woeful Russian command and control, rapid Ukrainian advances would threaten the isolation and encirclement of Russian forces. If Ukrainian forces succeed in isolating the Crimean Peninsula, that would undeniably shift the battlefield momentum in Kyiv’s favor. This would consolidate Western support and undermine Russia and China’s interest in dividing the West.
Moscow appears to recognize the danger.
The Kremlin is now warning that Ukrainian terrorists are plotting attacks on civilian targets to coincide with Russia’s annual World War II victory celebration on May 9. While Ukraine has been careful, under significant Western pressure, to avoid Russian civilian casualties (such as with the recent railway attacks), the Kremlin has a record of conducting false flag terrorist attacks on its own soil. A Russian intelligence service penchant dating back to the Czarist era, these efforts are designed to boost popular resolve against an external enemy. There is heavy circumstantial evidence, for example, that the Russian security services blew up four Russian apartment buildings in 1999 in order to justify escalation in Chechnya. Hundreds died in those explosions.
Regardless, Ukraine’s recent actions indicate that its counteroffensive is growing close.