Why Trump beat Clinton, lost to Biden, and would lose to Biden again
Conn Carroll
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A single group of voters decided not only the 2016 election and the 2020 election, but is poised to decide the 2024 election as well. These voters broke for President Donald Trump in 2016, for President Joe Biden in 2020, and they are leaning heavily against Trump in 2024.
Who are these voters? They are the increasing number of Americans who don’t like either candidate.
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In 2016, more voters had a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton (41%) than they did of Trump (36%). And almost every voter that had a favorable opinion of Clinton voted for Clinton (97%) and the same for Trump (97%). Where Trump closed the gap on Clinton was among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both candidates — about 20% of the electorate. Trump beat Clinton by 17 points among voters that had unfavorable opinions of both candidates.
Fast forward to 2020, and an August Monmouth University poll found that among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Trump (22% of all voters), Biden held a 40-point lead!
Now, according to the final 2020 exit polls, Trump did end up beating Biden among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both candidates by about 15%. But that might have to do with the pool of these voters falling dramatically to just 3%. In short, most of the voters who had disliked both candidates in August 2020 became voters that only disapproved of Trump by November.
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This year, it appears that once again, among those voters that disapprove of both candidates, Biden is beating Trump easily, 54% to 15%. How many of these voters are there this time around? Well, according to the Associated Press, 47% of all voters believe that neither Biden nor Trump should run for president in 2024.
Considering that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has much higher favorable ratings than Biden and Trump, it is not surprising that in both national and state polls, Trump is consistently losing to Biden, whereas DeSantis is beating him.