Inside the terrorist threat concerns over Biden’s Northern Ireland visit
Tom Rogan
Video Embed
The moment President Joe Biden steps off Air Force One in Northern Ireland on Tuesday evening, he’ll be surrounded by an unusually significant security operation. Biden’s visit to this part of the United Kingdom will be short, as he will travel to the Irish Republic on Wednesday afternoon. Nevertheless, his presence is important, celebrating the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that established relative peace between the U.K. and Irish separatist interests in Northern Ireland. Irish separatists seek the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland.
The word celebration might imply a happy occasion, but stress will be the word of the day for the Secret Service, the U.K.’s MI5 domestic intelligence service, and the Police Service of Northern Ireland. The terrorist threat level in Northern Ireland was recently raised to “severe,” meaning that MI5 analysts believe an attack is “highly likely.” This follows the attempted assassination of a senior PSNI officer in February by the New Irish Republican Army separatist/republican terrorist group. A number of improvised explosive devices believed to belong to separatist terrorists were discovered in the city of Derry on Tuesday morning. On Monday, petrol bombs were thrown at PSNI officers in the same area.
BIDEN’S IRELAND TRIP COMES WITH COMPLICATIONS
Put simply, tensions are high.
The Secret Service has deployed some of its most significant capabilities, normally reserved for trips to high-threat environments such as the Middle East, for the visit. The intent: Mitigate any possible known or unknown threat. While the U.K. does not allow the Secret Service to deploy its Counter Assault Team element with its firearms, that mission will be served by either the British military’s special forces, the PSNI’s Headquarters Mobile Support Unit SWAT team, or the Counter Terrorist Specialist Firearms Officer unit of London’s Metropolitan Police. The CTSFO provides this capability on presidential visits to the U.K. capital.
Asked whether the HSMU would provide the counterassault role for Biden, the PSNI told the Washington Examiner that “we do not comment on security matters other than to say that appropriate arrangements are in place.” Regardless, because of the significance of the visit and the terrorist threat level, it is almost certain that U.K. special forces will have some role in the security effort (even if they are disguised in police uniforms for reasons of political sensitivity).
Biden will be met in Belfast by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. But while the primary threat concern toward U.K. interests and the PSNI rests with separatist terrorists, any threats against Biden would come from so-called “loyalist” terrorists. They believe Northern Ireland must remain a U.K. territory and despise Biden for his Irish sympathies. The dual loyalist and separatist considerations mean that authorities face a dissected threat environment.
To be clear, the Washington Examiner is unaware of any explicit threats against either Biden or Sunak. That said, I understand that the threat “chatter” involving both loyalist and republican groups is significantly escalated (although the primary concern remains that of separatist attacks). Nevertheless, a cursory review of recent anti-Biden Twitter posts by loyalist sympathizers shows why the Secret Service isn’t taking any chances in Belfast.
The first two tweets show a bridge in southeastern Northern Ireland referencing Biden as “Provo Joe.” This rhetoric aims to associate Biden with the erstwhile Provisional IRA terrorist group and its successor separatist paramilitaries.
https://twitter.com/british_ulster/status/1645734348123930628 https://twitter.com/hotpaddy1981/status/1645755333380276226
Note the vague “undoing” language in the tweet below.
https://twitter.com/ukvasu2021/status/1644656527255515136
Relevant to the tweet below, “Ulster” refers to a traditional area of northern Ireland, to include areas of the Republic of Ireland, that loyalists believe should remain under British rule.
https://twitter.com/Unitedulsterman/status/1645838023395770390
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The tweet below involves an acronym for the “protestant, loyalist and unionist” community. Protestant vs. Catholic sectarianism is a sustaining theme of the conflict in Northern Ireland, with Irish separatists identifying themselves as Catholic and loyalists identifying as Protestant.
https://twitter.com/GMoore1859/status/1645834754841772044
Top line: Because of the preparations taken and the protective measures employed, Biden’s visit is likely to proceed securely. Violence on the periphery of the visit is, however, likely.