Mr. Macron, the modern Talleyrand, goes to Beijing
Tom Rogan
The People’s Liberation Army is practicing a total blockade of Taiwan. Chinese pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine remains non-existent. And the tentative European Union-U.S. effort to defend the democratic rule of law has been greatly undermined.
Thus, in China, we learned the true definition of French President Emmanuel Macron‘s foreign policy doctrine of “strategic autonomy.” It’s the doctrine of France first, even if all her allies suffer heavily for it.
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Although entirely predictable, there’s a not-so-slight irony at play here. Macron, after all, likes to present himself as the anti-Trump of international affairs. Not just a proud multilateralist leader, but the leader re-invigorating multilateralism for the 21st century.
Macron’s adventure to China last week proved the falsity of that narrative. He might be a courageous reformer at home, but the president of the Fifth Republic’s foreign policy emulates that of Talleyrand.
Foreign minister under France’s First Republic, Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, was a late 18th/early 19th-century French statesman who defined himself by his eloquence, intellect, and capricious double-dealing. To be sure, Macron has secured short-term economic wins via billions of dollars in new business deals. But he has done so at the expense of far greater economic and security losses for the European Union, the United States, and the fundamental principles of democratic international order.
In return for Chinese commitments to increase trade, Macron allowed his traveling partner, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, to be utterly humiliated by Xi Jinping. As Macron received red carpets and intimate personal audiences with Xi, von der Leyen was left out in the cold.
The Commission president, one of two heads of the EU executive, had infuriated Beijing with a speech she gave just prior to the trip. In that speech, von der Leyen expressed her belief that the EU needs to adopt greater “de-risking” with its China trade engagement. She also pledged to resist Beijing’s efforts to divide the political union. The Commission president’s words were moderate, sensible, and necessary. But Macron’s abandonment of his traveling partner was strikingly apparent. He did not, as he could have, demand that von der Leyen be invited to attend certain meetings for reasons of EU solidarity.
In so, Macron showed us that his commitment to a unified, strategically autonomous EU begins and ends with what Macron wants at any one moment. Which, when it comes to China, is trade, trade, trade.
Xi knows as much. He’s utterly convinced that European leaders can be cowed into submission by his dangling of Communist gold. Hence his systematic refusal to give an inch on the war in Ukraine. The ludicrous juxtaposition of Macron’s beaming face as he met Communist Party students, and Xi’s stiff refusal to move on Ukraine, must surely have inspired the confidence of the EU’s eastern flank members.
Yes, they must have thought, Macron’s strategic autonomy has European continental security’s back. Oh, and forget any Macron resistance to China’s threatened annihilation of democratic Taiwan. Macron is very happy to appease China here. Indeed, in an interview with Politico as he transited China, Macron offered the astonishing excuse of deliberate weakness as a rationale for abandoning Taiwan to the dragon’s fire. As he put it, “Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it.”
That disingenuous rhetoric is designed to be credible to Western audiences while ultimately seeking Xi’s nodding affection. The reality is that the Europeans retain significant naval capabilities. Training alongside the U.S. and Japan in a mutual deterrent posture, they might prevent a war over Taiwan. But it’s easier for Macron to pretend France can do nothing except to eat Xi’s cake. Evincing as much, contemplate this editor’s note from the Politico article in question: “Some parts of the interview in which the president spoke even more frankly about Taiwan and Europe’s strategic autonomy were cut out by the [French presidential administration].” Translation: Macron said stuff that would be so alarming to Washington, if published, the French government had to keep it off the record.
Astonishing truly is the word of the day.
Consider that Macron went on to lend support to China’s imperial gambits in the East and South China Seas. Alongside written commitments to strengthen technology cooperation, something that should alarm a Biden administration that so recently feted Macron with a state visit, the French president pledged new cooperation with the PLA.
The two nations have committed that “the Southern Theater [Command] of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army — chiefly responsible for the South China Sea — will ‘deepen the dialogue’ with [the] Asia-Pacific command of the French forces.”
Simple dialogue is not normally a problem. In the context of Macron’s antics during this trip, however, the U.S. military — expecting near-term war with China in order to defend Taiwan and free navigation in the South China Sea — must wonder what this “dialogue” entails. The French navy knows a great deal about U.S. submarine operations, for example. America’s only consolation here is that French naval officers care more about honor and allies than they do Macron’s smiling duplicity.
Still, this visit should be a wake-up call. Like the German Chancellor, when it comes to the defining challenge facing the democratic world, Macron seems happy to give up the allied ship. Just as long as that is, his lifeboat is filled with Communist gold.
The U.S. should recall its ambassadors from Paris and Berlin for urgent consultations.