Why Israel is about to strike Hamas in Lebanon, and likely also Hezbollah in Beirut
Tom Rogan
Israel is preparing to strike Hamas forces in Lebanon, with action also likely against Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
The strikes will serve as retaliation for Hamas’s firing of dozens of rockets into northern Israel on Thursday. Those attacks injured three Israelis. Hamas has also launched rockets from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel in recent days. Hamas and Hezbollah, which supports the attacks, are using the nominal excuse of clashes between Israeli police and protesters at the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Still, the primary motive for the rocket fire is likely pressure from Iran on the terrorist groups to escalate tensions with Israel. In tandem with its escalating attack plots against Israel and targets in the West, Iran may hope to exploit the deep political tensions in Israel. Iran is a key financial and logistical benefactor for Hamas and Hezbollah, further sharing deep ideological ties with Hezbollah.
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Attempting to dissuade Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran that they can use violence to weaken a divided Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government and main opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz have expressed their commitment to unity. Anticipating that Netanyahu’s government may soon collapse, all three leaders have the added domestic political interest in broadcasting strength on national security.
Action both against Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon thus seems likely.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is in Beirut meeting with various factions. Hezbollah’s al Manar media outlet reports Haniyeh as pledging to prevent the “Judaization” of Jerusalem on Thursday evening. This comes on the heels of a meeting last month between senior Hamas leader Saleh al Arouri and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It also comes amid a continuing political crisis in Beirut. Alongside these meetings, which reek of collusion, Hezbollah’s domination of southern Lebanon makes it almost certain that Hamas would not have launched these rocket attacks without Hezbollah’s explicit approval.
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The Iran factor looms large for another reason. As Iran advances its enrichment of uranium, possibly toward weapons-grade purity, Israel will want to underline its commitment to dominate the escalation curve. The Iran nuclear factor cannot be overestimated as Israel views the prospective advent of an Iranian nuclear weapon as the precursor to a second Holocaust.
In short, the question here is not whether Israel responds robustly but whether Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are willing to engage in a protracted conflict.