China sidesteps Putin’s Belarussian nuclear move, proving its false red line
Tom Rogan
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China isn’t terribly concerned by Russia’s announcement that it will deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Asked about the Russian action on Monday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman referenced a January 2022 statement by Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” The spokeswoman then added, “Under the current circumstances, all sides need to focus on making diplomatic efforts towards a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis and work together for deescalation.”
This rhetoric is not a condemnation of Russia’s latest nuclear brinkmanship. Russia isn’t deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus in preparation for a nuclear strike in or around Ukraine, but rather to fuel Western fears over escalation related to the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is playing this nuclear card because his forces are losing on the battlefield. Via its bland response to Putin’s action, however, Beijing is emphasizing only its unwillingness to pressure Moscow.
Instead, China wants to shift the responsibility for solving the conflict to the U.S. Beijing’s interest here was underlined when, after the spokeswoman was asked another question about Russia’s nuclear moves, she responded in part that “we hope that the U.S. will also act responsibly to create the necessary environment and conditions for peace talks between the parties concerned, rather than add fuel to the fire.”
The international community shouldn’t buy the lie that China is selling. By tolerating Russia’s escalations, China is the one adding fuel to the fire.
Last November, Xi Jinping suggested that the international community “jointly oppose the use of, or threats to use, nuclear weapons.” This earned Xi undue praise from some in the West on the misguided basis that he was signaling real pressure on Putin to avoid nuclear brinkmanship. Unfortunately, Xi’s rhetoric was a political gimmick designed only for the greedy consumption of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (who was visiting Beijing at the time). China knows that all it needs to do to maintain its cozy trade-at-nearly-all-costs relationship with the European Union is to offer the occasional pretense that it is putting pressure on Russia over Ukraine. Unwilling to leverage its trade relationship with Beijing, the EU has shown that all it needs is the pretense, not the reality, of that pressure.
But foreign policy shouldn’t be made on the basis of pretense. Its gimmick diplomacy aside, China has shown time and time again that it has no interest in being an impartial mediator when it comes to seeking a just end to the war in Ukraine. It deserves to be called out as such.