No, Trump getting arrested won’t help him win in a landslide
Christopher Tremoglie
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Donald Trump caused quite a firestorm over the weekend, claiming on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he would be arrested on Tuesday stemming from a Manhattan District Attorney’s Office’s investigation over alleged hush payments he made to porn star Stormy Daniels. The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office has confirmed nothing, but it led to many reactions, including some that said if Trump were indeed arrested, it would lead to a surge in public support and a landslide victory in 2024. But that’s a ridiculous assertion, and in reality, nothing could be further from the truth.
While information about Trump’s alleged forthcoming arrest is scarce, it would appear that such an action would be a gross overreach of power. However, while it seems a Trump indictment would undoubtedly be wrong and unjust, it would also be a mistake to say this would help him win the 2024 election. He would be the victim of a political stunt orchestrated by a radical, left-wing, Soros-funded district attorney. But that doesn’t help him get widespread support from people who previously didn’t vote for him.
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Elon Musk is one person who made such a comment. Regarding a Trump indictment, Musk tweeted, “If this happens, Trump will be re-elected in a landslide victory.” But nothing could be further from the truth — and I say this as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. These kinds of predictions are similar to the people who said the FBI raiding Mar-a-Lago in August 2022 would lead to a “red tsunami” in the midterm elections. And we know how that turned out.
If Trump is indeed arrested on bogus charges, sure, it will rile up his base and MAGA supporters throughout the country. However, as we saw in 2020, and to a lesser degree in 2016 because Trump won the Electoral College vote, that is not enough to win the popular vote in an election. Yes, we use the Electoral College, not the popular vote, in presidential elections. But victories without winning the popular vote are rare, and Trump already benefited from it once. It is extremely unlikely lightning would strike twice and it would happen again — especially to the same candidate.
Trump getting arrested does not expand his appeal or widen his support to the point where millions of people who didn’t vote for him would suddenly do so. And, if anything, realistically, it would probably lead to a decrease in support. Other than the anger-induced fantasies of Trump’s supporters, nothing suggests this could legitimately happen. Anyone claiming such a thing needs a dose of reality.