US should reject China’s Kamala Harris-for-Kevin McCarthy Taiwan compromise
Tom Rogan
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Anticipating a visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) — still to be planned and scheduled — China is offering a compromise. In return for allowing McCarthy to visit Taiwan without the sort of military reaction that followed Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to the island democracy, China wants Vice President Kamala Harris to visit Beijing simultaneously.
As the South China Morning Post reports, Chinese Communist Party officials have quietly suggested to the Biden administration that they send Harris to Beijing when McCarthy goes to Taiwan. This would follow in the tradition of a 1997 visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Vice President Al Gore visited Beijing around the same time.
It might sound reasonable, but the U.S. should not take this poisoned olive branch.
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For a start, the Biden administration would signal weakness and hesitation were it to do such a thing. This is not to say that the U.S. should do whatever upsets China the most in relation to Taiwan. One of the few areas where I agree with Jessica Chen Weiss, for example, is her suggestion that the U.S. look for a reciprocal reduction of military activity in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan must also massively increase defense spending if it expects America to fight alongside it.
Still, the basic principle involved in U.S. political visits to Taiwan is that American politicians have the right to accept invites to travel to democratic nations. To deter China from attacking Taiwan, the U.S. must broadcast bipartisan unity of effort in the island’s democratic defense. Simultaneous McCarthy-Harris visits would instead broadcast American division. And for the Chinese Communist Party, perhaps more than any other political entity, internal division is seen as a terrible weakness. In the context of existing concerns by U.S. allies that the U.S. is divided over policy relating to Ukraine, this double-visit strategy would not be a good look (incidentally, McCarthy makes a mistake by not accepting Ukraine’s invitation to visit that nation).
Taking this option would also mean undermining the speaker and, by association, the legislative branch. It would be one thing had the administration sent Harris to Beijing when Pelosi visited Taiwan. But it did not do so. To shift strategy because a Republican now holds the speaker’s gavel would evince partisanship.
Finally, a dual visit strategy would set a new Beijing-favorable norm for future visits. Were the U.S. later to abandon this norm, it would invite China’s escalation in kind. At a minimum, China would view any dual visit as a victory in its effort to delegitimize Taiwan’s democracy and American resolve in its support.
Put simply, if McCarthy is invited to Taiwan and wants to go, he should go. Harris should avoid China, at least in the period immediately before and after McCarthy’s excursion.