After border disaster, can Biden pull off ‘pivot’ on immigration?
Byron York
AFTER BORDER DISASTER, CAN BIDEN PULL OFF ‘PIVOT’ ON IMMIGRATION? More than two years ago, during the transition when he was president-elect, Joe Biden mused what might happen if he mishandled immigration policy. If he got it wrong, Biden said, if he too quickly opened up access to the United States after former President Donald Trump’s more restrictive policies, we could “end up with 2 million people on our border.” That would be a catastrophe.
And that is exactly what happened! That is precisely what Biden did when he became President Joe Biden. Illegal border crossers began rushing to the border to take advantage of Biden’s new open policy. What the Border Patrol calls “encounters” of illegal crossers on the U.S.-Mexico border rose from 458,088 in fiscal 2020 to 1,734,686 in fiscal 2021 to 2,378,944 in fiscal 2022. Biden had outdone himself — unlike his prediction, there were actually more than 2 million people on the border. And all had come in the belief, correct in many cases, that the Biden administration would allow them to remain in the U.S.
The mess on the border has become one of Biden’s biggest political liabilities. Look at any poll measurement of his job approval. Voters’ approval of Biden’s handling of the border situation is the lowest of any issue in his presidency. A Quinnipiac University poll last month noted that Biden’s “marks on his handling of the situation at the Mexican border hit an all-time low.” Before, Biden’s lowest rating on handling the border was 23% approval versus 67% disapproval on Oct. 6, 2021. Now, that has fallen even more to 18% approval versus 68% disapproval. To call such a rating dismal would be an understatement.
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Now Biden is apparently preparing to announce that he will run for reelection in 2024. And guess what? He is trying to undo some of the political damage his border policies have done. And that is known in the campaign business as a “pivot.”
First, in January, Biden actually visited the southwestern border, something he had resisted doing even as the terrible consequences of his policies became obvious to all. Biden announced that he would tighten asylum requirements for people coming illegally into the U.S. from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Haiti. “My administration is taking several steps to stiffen enforcement for those who try to come without a legal right to stay,” Biden said. If you’re from those countries, he added, “do not, do not just show up at the border.” Imagine that — after struggling to accommodate the millions who came across in his first two years in office, Biden gets tough.
Then, in February, Biden unveiled a plan that would “bar migrants from seeking asylum if they attempt to cross the southwest border illegally without first asking for protection in a country they traveled through,” according to an account in Axios. Another get-tough move from the president.
Now, Biden is said to be considering a return to what is called family detention — that is, detaining whole families who cross the border illegally. When former President Donald Trump did that, Democrats like Biden went nuts, accusing the Trump administration of cruelty and racism and going to court to stop enforcement of the policy. As a candidate, Biden promised to end family detention, and once in the White House, he has done just that “because he wanted a more humane immigration system,” in the words of the New York Times.
But now — family detention. Could any set of actions be more baldly political? It has been clear since Jan. 20, 2021, that the chaos and lawlessness on the border were the direct results of Biden’s campaign promises and actions as president. Republicans began protesting almost immediately. The situation will only get worse, they said, and indeed, it did. And yet Biden ignored the growing concerns over the border and kept accepting illegal border crossers, full speed ahead, for two years.
But now a reelection campaign is approaching. And Biden has decided it is time to get tough on the border. He is “cracking down” on illegal crossings. Yes, some of his more liberal supporters are unhappy, but the moves are giving Biden the election-tailored headlines he wants — headlines like this, from the New York Times: “Biden Announces Major Crackdown on Illegal Border Crossings.”
Republicans, of course, are skeptical. First, they are skeptical that Biden will actually do anything to “crack down” on illegal immigration. Once he gets the media coverage he wants, it could be that nothing much changes. Then, they are skeptical that even if Biden is taking short-term action, it will last only until Biden decides it is no longer politically useful. The one thing Republican critics can be sure of is that Biden does not actually mean what he says.
Will voters buy it? Will they believe the president? Will the pivot work politically? It’s hard to imagine that after all that has happened, and with only about 20-30% of voters approving the way Biden has handled the border situation so far, it’s hard to imagine that the public will all of a sudden give the president credit for being tough on illegal border crossers. And of course there are other things for voters to think about in a Biden reelection campaign, such as whether they want to reelect a president who will be 86 years old at the end of a second term.
But Biden is trying. If he can persuade the public not to believe its own eyes on the border, he can do anything.
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