New Hampshire primary could be a huge embarrassment for Biden
Tom Joyce
President Joe Biden suffered an embarrassing fifth-place finish in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. Regardless of whether or not Biden has any serious Democratic primary challenger in 2024, he may lose the primary again — by refusing to participate.
The Democratic National Committee decided to change its primary order last month so that New Hampshire no longer holds the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. The party wants South Carolina, a right-leaning but more racially diverse state, to go first.
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However, New Hampshire law requires the state to hold the first primary in the nation, and governments run elections, not the private organizations known as political parties. Plus, New Hampshire’s Republican trifecta government has no intention of changing that law. Gov. Chris Sununu, who is mulling a presidential bid of his own, will not repeal something that helps his own presidential aspirations.
Therefore, the Democratic establishment, including Biden, may refuse to participate in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, which the state will hold regardless of what the Democrats want.
New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley said this creates a situation in which the incumbent president will lose the New Hampshire primary — again.
“President Biden will not file for election in the New Hampshire primary, which will still go first,” Buckley told Fox News last week.
Buckley also warned that “this will set him up, we believe, for an embarrassing situation where the first primary in the country will be won by someone other than the president. This will only fuel chatter … about Democrats’ divisions.”
Unfortunately for Biden, this presents an opportunity for someone running against him. The New Hampshire presidential primary receives a lot of media attention. Therefore, the top performers in New Hampshire and those who poll well in the Granite State primary could receive plenty of free media coverage to bolster their respective campaigns.
Biden supporters could write him in during the New Hampshire primary if he chooses not to participate, and he could win the election that way. After all, Republican Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. won the New Hampshire presidential primary in 1964 as a write-in despite insisting he was not a presidential candidate.
However, it is easier to win an election when someone is a candidate on the ballot, and the national Democratic Party will likely discourage people from participating in what they view as an illegitimate primary.
Yet, for a Democratic primary challenger, that should not matter. The Democratic establishment supports Biden, even though most of the public does not want Biden to run for president again. Therefore, a Biden primary challenger will not have the DNC’s support anyway and should do whatever they can to garner free media attention and gain public support. Winning the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary would likely be well worth any penalty the DNC could impose for participating in it.
So far, the biggest names expressing interest in primarying Biden are Marianne Williamson, who dropped out before the Iowa caucus in 2020, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., best known for being Robert F. Kennedy’s anti-vaxxer son. They are not exactly the strongest candidates, though Williamson appealed to some young liberals in her 2020 run.
If a stronger candidate wanted to challenge Biden, they might get an easy New Hampshire primary victory that could uplift their campaign and make them a more serious contender in other key states. It remains unclear if any big names will primary Biden for the Democratic nomination, but if they want to, the Democratic Party’s conflict with New Hampshire could be their golden ticket.
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Tom Joyce (@TomJoyceSports) is a political reporter for the New Boston Post in Massachusetts.