Lower-tier GOP candidates should sit out the 2024 presidential primary
Zachary Faria
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New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) appears to see the writing on the wall in a potential GOP presidential primary. So why can’t he and other lower-tier candidates just get out of the way now?
A poll in New Hampshire found that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) currently leads former President Donald Trump in the state 42%-30%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who appears headed toward a presidential run, is a distant third at 8%. Sununu, in his own state, pulls 4%, alongside former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan.
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Sununu himself is acknowledging that he seemingly has no chance. He said DeSantis would win New Hampshire “without a doubt,” which calls into question Sununu’s chances to win any other state. And yet, despite being clear-eyed about his chances, he is still considering a presidential run.
The same is true of Hogan, who is running focus groups before his inevitable campaign launch. Hogan touts that his name ID “isn’t very high” and that 80% of likely Republican voters in his focus groups would consider voting for him. Hogan’s criticisms of Trump and his belief that the party should move on from him are right. The idea that voters are going to choose him instead (once they learn who he is) is absurd.
The trajectory of the GOP race is quite clear. DeSantis and Trump are the favorites, and the only hope that any of the other candidates (including Haley) have of winning is if DeSantis decides not to run at all. Despite not joining the race yet, DeSantis is holding a lead in the first three states on the GOP calendar. It would be wishful thinking to assume that he stays away.
That means we are likely to get a two-horse race between Trump and DeSantis, with every other candidate only getting in the way. Candidates like Sununu and Hogan would be fighting for the same small cut of the party’s centrist voters, not nearly enough to win the nomination. They would also likely peel off anti-Trump GOP voters that would otherwise back DeSantis. Sununu, Hogan, Haley, and other prospective GOP candidates won’t win the nomination, but they would help Trump clinch it.
Not every Republican needs to run for president. Sununu has been an asset for the GOP in New Hampshire, and he can continue to help the party by running statewide again or serving in another capacity. But it won’t be at the top of a presidential ticket. The same is true for Hogan — and Haley, for that matter. It’s also true for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and the others whose names have been floated as potential candidates (by themselves or others).
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Barring a dramatic event or two, the GOP ticket in 2024 will be headed by DeSantis, the younger, more effective Republican who just erased Florida’s swing-state status, or Trump, the older, erratic candidate who just lost a presidential race to Joe Biden. Everyone else is going to be running for third place, likely leaving the GOP even weaker heading into 2024 in the process.