Democrats’ best weapon on spending is Republican division
Washington Examiner
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An important fact to remember between now and this summer, when Congress finally raises the debt limit, is that this political crisis is entirely of President Joe Biden’s choosing.
Democrats had complete control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate for two years. They passed not one but two reconciliation bills on a completely partisan basis without a single Republican vote. Democrats could have very easily raised the federal government’s borrowing limit in either of those two bills with zero Republican input.
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Instead, they made a politically strategic decision not to raise the debt limit. Why would Democrats intentionally choose to do this right before a presidential election? If you want to know the answer, just look at past debt limit showdowns and the chaos in the House during this year’s speaker elections.
Democrats have cynically calculated that they will benefit politically by staging a little debt limit theater. They will refuse to negotiate, hoping Republicans will tear themselves apart with all manner of crazy ideas. The public, they hope, will see that Republicans cannot be trusted to govern, and then a cadre of centrists will vote with Democrats to raise the debt limit without concessions or limits on spending, right before Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin says the world will end.
This isn’t a bad bet by the Democrats. Republicans are divided over what to ask for in exchange for raising the debt limit. Already, this has led to Republicans floating terrible ideas such as legislation directing the Treasury Department to prioritize certain government financial obligations above others. Not only is this futile — Democrats would never pass the legislation — but it also forces Republicans needlessly to alienate those voters whose programs would be cut first. It also isn’t needed. The 14th amendment already empowers the Treasury Secretary to honor public debt before other obligations.
Does this mean Republicans should just surrender and give Biden the clean debt limit hike he wants? Absolutely not. Congress has added $7.2 trillion in debt in the past three years, and annual deficits are approaching $2 trillion. Voters gave Republicans control of the House of Representatives, so they should use that power to begin to hold Biden accountable on spending.
But Republicans should also remember that voters did not give them control of the Senate or the White House. There is a limit to what Republicans can accomplish in lowering federal spending while controlling just one chamber of Congress.
Republicans should require a measure of spending reform in exchange for their votes to raise the debt limit. Democrats chose not to raise the debt limit without Republican input. It is only reasonable that Democrats therefore accept some input. That does not mean they will do so.
Voters will tolerate a reasonable amount of spending reform. Balancing the budget in 10 years is not reasonable. By 2032, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the debt will account for more than 75% of all federal spending. Getting to zero would require huge cuts to defense that would leave the United States vulnerable to China.
Republicans should unite on measures that move in the right direction. It is possible to identify $500 billion in spending cuts over the next 10 years. That would show voters that Republicans are serious about containing spending and can deliver on the issue.
But the GOP must be united in order for this to work. Republicans have just spent an embarrassing week fighting for their places on the team. They must now play as a team. If every member holds out until his or her personal plan to balance the budget is included, nothing will be cut. Centrist Republicans will simply cross over and vote for a clean debt limit hike, and Democrats will be rewarded for their cynicism.
That’s why, if Republicans really want to cut spending, they need to unite on a debt limit strategy and do it now.
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