No daylight between Trump and Biden

As the dust settles after Super Tuesday battles, the rematch of former President Donald Trump versus President Joe Biden remains razor close.

The latest survey shared with Secrets shows Biden with a 1-point lead, 43% to 42%, and suggests that moving voters out of their political silos is proving very difficult, no matter how each candidate performs.

While other polls have shown a wider lead for Trump, the I&I/TIPP poll is in line with many that show a fall election much like every other close contest of the past several decades.

However, the poll is only on the popular vote. On the electoral map, Trump is showing a sizable lead, up in all of the key swing states, including those Biden edged him in during the 2020 vote.

“Each side in today’s often-angry political debate over the upcoming presidential election seems convinced that its candidate has a clear advantage. But, as of now, neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump has an obvious edge in the popular vote as we enter the final eight months of the 2024 election season, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows,” the analysis said.

The survey said there is a lot at play besides issues in the fall election. Biden’s age, dissatisfaction with the choices, and possible third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are in the mix.

Each side likes their guy, making independents important. “The partisan breakdown was fairly even, with 85% of Dems favoring Biden and 86% of Republicans favoring Trump. Among independents, a crucial swing vote for both candidates, the prospective vote broke 37% in favor of Trump, 36% in favor of Biden, with a hefty 16% saying ‘other’ and 11% ‘not sure,’” the analysis said.


“That means, in terms of overall voter preference, as of March the head-to-head battle between Biden and Trump is within the margin of error, still too close to call,” I&I added.

Add in Kennedy and two others, and it’s a dead-even race. “When those candidates are added, the race tightens considerably, with Biden and Trump tied at 38% apiece,” the analysis said, adding, “That third party-independent vote hurts Biden a bit more than Trump, cutting his share by 5 percentage points to Trump’s 4 percentage points.”

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