Senate 2024: Here are the eight seats most likely to flip control
Cami Mondeaux
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As Senate Democrats seek to maintain their majority in 2024, party leaders are poised to focus on a handful of key battleground states that are likely to flip to GOP control.
The 2024 cycle could prove to be more challenging for Democrats as they will have to defend 22 Senate seats compared to just 11 for Republicans. A handful of Democrats will also be fighting for reelection in reliably red states — giving Republicans a chance to flip some crucial seats.
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Here are the eight states that are most likely to flip control in the 2024 election:
Arizona
The Senate race in Arizona is expected to be a crowded one, as the seat is currently held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who announced late last year she’d be leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent. As a result, the race is expected to attract both Republicans and Democrats who want to challenge her for the battleground seat.
Arizona has only recently emerged as a swing state after long being controlled by Republicans, giving Democrats an advantage after they successfully attracted both centrists and liberals in the past few elections. However, Sinema running as an independent threatens to divide the Democratic vote and hand a win to Republicans.
Still, Republicans also have a set of challenges they must face, especially after a disappointing midterm performance in the state in which Democrats defeated their GOP opponents for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.
Michigan
Democrats were seemingly confident in their chances to hold their Senate seat in Michigan up until Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) announced on Jan. 5 that she will not seek reelection in 2024, making her the first Democratic incumbent senator to announce her retirement for the next election cycle.
Stabenow’s retirement opens up a seat in Michigan that the Democrat has held since 2001, giving Republicans a key pickup opportunity. So far, no Democrat has announced his or her intent to replace her, although some high-profile lawmakers, such as Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Debbie Dingell (D-MI), are reportedly considering Senate bids.
Montana
Among those who must defend their blue seats in Republican-leaning states is Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, who narrowly defeated Republican Matt Rosendale in 2018 by 3.5 percentage points.
Tester faces an uphill battle as he must defend his blue seat in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 16.4 points in 2020. Tester’s seat is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats heading into 2024, although the Montana Democrat has maintained he “feels good about his chances,” he told MSNBC in December.
Tester has not yet announced whether he’ll launch a reelection bid, but he is expected to announce his decision sometime in the coming weeks.
Nevada
The Nevada Senate race in 2022 between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Republican Adam Laxalt emerged as one of the most contentious elections of the midterm cycle — and 2024 is expected to be no different.
The 2024 election will be Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-NV) first reelection bid and will take place in a key battleground state that Republicans heavily targeted in the last election cycle. As a result, Nevada is seen as one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities in 2024.
Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is also expected to face a tough reelection bid as he seeks to defend his blue seat in a state that Trump won by 8 points in 2020.
Brown managed to survive his last reelection bid after defeating Republican Jim Renacci in 2018, handing Democrats a crucial win in the battleground state. Ohio has emerged as a key swing state in recent years after backing Trump in both 2016 and 2020 despite voting for former President Barack Obama twice before that.
Democrats must also grapple with their recent losses after Republican J.D. Vance defeated former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) for Ohio’s Senate seat in 2022, giving the GOP some momentum to claim both seats come 2024.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is expected to emerge as one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024, particularly after Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz in one of the most contentious midterm elections of the 2022 cycle.
Many Democrats have been left wondering whether Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) will seek reelection, particularly after the Pennsylvania Democrat announced he was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer earlier this year.
Although Casey assured supporters his diagnosis would not hinder him from finishing out his current term, the incumbent has not yet indicated whether he’ll run for reelection. Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to target the Keystone State as one of their best pickup opportunities.
West Virginia
Considered to be one of the most vulnerable Democrats heading into the 2024 election cycle, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has all eyes on him as he mulls his future plans.
The West Virginia Democrat has not yet indicated whether he plans to run for reelection. However, if he does, Manchin would be running in a state that Trump won by 38.9 percentage points in 2020 — making him a top target for the Republican Party.
The race for the Senate seat has already begun to take shape after Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) announced his intent to run just one week after the midterm elections.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has emerged as one of the most closely watched swing states in recent years, narrowly backing Trump in 2016 before President Joe Biden won by less than 1 percentage point in 2020.
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Although Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has not yet indicated whether she’ll seek reelection next year, Democrats are eager to have her launch another bid. Baldwin has had strong reelection numbers in recent elections, winning by nearly 6 percentage points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2018.
However, Republicans do benefit from some midterm momentum after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) survived reelection last year, defeating former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in one of the most high-profile midterm races of 2022.