Democrats not waiting for Feinstein in California Senate race
David M. Drucker
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California Democrats are not deferring to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) or waiting for the 30-year incumbent to reveal her 2024 plans.
That includes Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who announced her Senate bid this week. That includes Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Feinstein’s Democratic colleague in the Senate, who on Thursday endorsed Porter’s Senate campaign — which, if Feinstein chose not to retire, would function as a direct threat to a 2024 reelection bid. Party insiders are expecting more aspiring California Democrats to follow Porter’s lead regardless of what the 89-year-old Feinstein chooses to do.
“It’s a big state, and there are a bunch of ambitious people out there,” said Andrew Acosta, a veteran Democratic operative in California. “They’re looking past her.”
“People are going to start organizing for a run no matter what she does,” added Democratic operative Ed Espinoza, who is based in Austin, Texas, but hails from California.
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Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) has informed House colleagues she intends to run for Senate, while Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who has a massive $20 million war chest at the ready, and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) are also expressing interest in mounting a campaign. Expectations that Feinstein will retire is one factor driving Democrats to move early this year to enter, or plan to enter, the California Senate race.
It is not the only factor.
The 2024 California Senate primary is in March — just 14 months away. That doesn’t leave much time to organize and raise money to run a viable campaign in the nation’s most populous state, where advertising costs are high. Los Angeles is the second-largest media market in the United States; San Francisco also ranks in the top 10, while Sacramento and San Diego are both in the top 30.
Additionally, the liberal activist base of Democrats in deep-blue California long ago grew disenchanted with Feinstein, a congenial politician steeped in an era in which politics was more civil, more bipartisan, and less online. Indeed, in 2018, the California Democratic Party opposed Feinstein’s reelection, endorsing Kevin de Leon, then a state senator and now an LA city councilman. Feinstein survived in large part because of California’s all-party primary system.
The state holds one nominating contest for candidates of all political affiliations, with the top two advancing to the November general election. In many contests, two Democrats have won spots on the November ballot, competing in what is essentially a runoff. If Republicans fail to field a viable candidate, the Democrats could see an extended battle for Feinstein’s seat, whether she runs for a sixth full term or not.
But Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican consultant in Sacramento, said it’s very possible the GOP will put forward a candidate who can excite grassroots conservatives and is at least capable of coalescing the party’s vote and getting through the state’s all-party primary. A general election pitting a Democrat against a Republican would likely be a blowout for the blue team.
Democrats enjoy a wide voter registration advantage over the Republicans, leading them 46.87% to 23.85%, per state records. Nearly as many registered voters, 22.53%, are registered “no party preference.”
“We don’t know what Republican might run for the hell of it, but someone with some name ID that can speak to the base, the next Larry Elder, could consolidate GOP vote and avoid a Democrat vs. Democrat runoff in November,” Stutzman said. “The race would be functionally over.”
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Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host, was a candidate for governor in California’s 2021 recall campaign, losing to incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). In the event two Democrats advanced to the 2024 general election for Senate, Republicans and right-of-center independent voters would be wild cards who might, or might not, swing the race.