They blue it: Democrats predicted to get a shellacking and lose both House and Senate


AP Poll Biden
President Joe Biden speaks at the Summit on Fire Prevention and Control in the South Court Auditorium on the White House complex in Washington, Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022. More U.S. adults are now feeling financially vulnerable amid high inflation. That’s a political risk for Biden and his fellow Democrats one month before the midterm elections. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) Susan Walsh/AP

They blue it: Democrats predicted to get a shellacking and lose both House and Senate

Video Embed

In the twilight hours of the midterm elections, the outlook is bleak for Democrats as multiple forecasts deem Republicans the clear favorite to win both the House and Senate.

Sporting a poker face, many Democratic leaders have sought to convey public conviction that Tuesday night won’t be a red bloodbath, but already, some pundits have been readying for soul-searching as polls signal a torrent of painful losses.


Republicans began the House sprint with a number of advantages stemming from gerrymandering, a stronger-than-expected performance in the 2020 election, and favorable historical trends for the opposition party.

Only 218 seats are needed for a majority. Republicans are favored to win at least 212 of them. Democrats are favored to win 187, while 36 are toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report. This has given the GOP a strong starting point.

Meanwhile, the battle for the evenly divided Senate is more of a jump ball scramble, with Democrats favored in 11 of the 35 races compared to the Republicans’ 20, while four are toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report. In other words, Democrats are on pace for 47 seats compared to the GOP’s 49, while four seats are toss-ups.

In three major forecasts — RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Democrats are the underdog in the battleground races that could tip the scales of power. RealClearPolitics predicted the rosiest outlook for Republicans, projecting a 53-47 takeover of the Senate and a 227-174 surge in the House, with 35 races deemed toss-ups.

FiveThirtyEight was previously somewhat bearish on GOP prospects in the Senate and had favored the Democrats during the summer amid backlash to the overturn of Roe v. Wade. But during the final sprint, it shifted red and gave Republicans a 59 in 100 chance of capturing the upper chamber. In the lower chamber, Republicans have an 84 in 100 chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“It may seem like lots of evidence is pointing in the same direction, but there’s not necessarily that much *independent* evidence. A lot of the evidence is drawn from the same sources or is derivative of the other evidence,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver cautioned in a tweet.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects Republicans winning 51 Senate seats to Democrats’ 49 and has Republicans favored in 237 House races eclipsing the 198 leaning toward Democrats.

Some politicos are holding out hope that the prophesied red tsunami could be a mirage. Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore has argued that Democrats are on the precipice of a blue tsunami amid brewing backlash to the overturn of Roe. Other Democrats such as Simon Rosenberg have theorized that Republican-friendly pollsters have flooded the poll aggregates.

“There’s no question about what’s happening here. Rs have launched [a] major campaign to game the polling averages,” Rosenberg tweeted.


Looming over the election has been a bevy of hot-button issues such as roaring inflation, soaring energy costs, crime, abortion, and backlash to the COVID-19 suppression policies, polls have indicated.

Results from the election may not all be on Tuesday night. Several states have experienced high early vote turnout, setting the stage for a prolonged vote-counting process.

© 2022 Washington Examiner

Related Content