Who’s in and who’s out: Here are the battleground states to watch in 2024
Cami Mondeaux
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The 2024 elections are expected to be much different from the most recent midterm cycle, as newly drawn congressional maps and a shifting political battlefield begin to take shape in previously considered swing states.
The new battleground map for 2024 reveals a shift in how quickly onetime swing states are changing to become more partisan and how other states that were once solidly red or blue have become toss-ups in recent years. And with Democrats looking to change up their presidential primary calendar to include a new lineup of battleground states, candidates are set to focus on a slew of areas that have previously fallen to the wayside.
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Here’s a breakdown of who’s in and who’s out of contention as a battleground state in 2024:
Longtime battlegrounds Iowa and Ohio, among others, out of contention
Gone are the days of obsessing over the battleground states of Ohio and Florida, as the two have become increasingly Republican over the last few years.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine won reelection by 25 points in 2022, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was reelected by 19 points — achieving the best showing in Miami-Dade County for a GOP candidate in two decades. The two governor’s races indicate that Ohio and Florida, once considered to be crucial swing states, have become reliably red.
Other swing states, such as Michigan or Colorado, have also been brushed off by political analysts for 2024, with both states trending blue in recent years. Meanwhile, Texas has become less competitive as it establishes itself as a Republican stronghold.
In: Wisconsin
Wisconsin has proved itself to be a tight battleground state over the last few elections, narrowly awarding presidential candidates a win by the slimmest of margins.
Former President Donald Trump narrowly beat then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by 0.7 points in 2016 before later losing to President Joe Biden by the same margin in 2020. However, the state shifted back toward Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections, making it the only Biden state where Republicans won a Senate race.
Candidates are expected to keep their eyes on both rural Wisconsin, which is considered to be Trump country, and the Milwaukee suburbs, which are considered to be more favorable toward Democrats.
In: Georgia
Georgia has positioned itself as a crucial swing state in the last two election cycles, establishing itself as the closest battleground in the 2020 presidential race.
That election also saw massive gains for Democrats as they were able to flip both Senate seats in the Peach State, which the party was able to defend when Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) defeated Republican Herschel Walker in 2022. Both elections were settled in runoff races that were decided by slim margins.
In: Pennsylvania
The Republican stronghold of Pennsylvania could prove itself to be a battleground in 2024 after Democrats were able to make inroads with GOP voters to secure the governor’s mansion and flip a Senate seat.
The Keystone State has also become increasingly tight in who it backs for president, meaning it could once again be considered a crucial swing state in the next election cycle. Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7 points in 2016, reversing a decadeslong trend of Democratic wins.
Biden later defeated Trump by 1.2 points in 2020.
In: Arizona
Arizona has also positioned itself as a crucial swing state in recent years, often elevating candidates from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum to face off on the ballot.
The Grand Canyon State saw a number of tight midterm races in 2022, including that for governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. In fact, Democrat Kris Mayes’s victory in the attorney general’s race was one of the closest elections in state history.
Republicans have long held an advantage in Arizona, a trend that Biden upended in 2020 when he defeated Trump by 0.3 percentage points — the highest level of support for a Democratic candidate since 1964.
In: North Carolina
North Carolina is also expected to be a top state to watch in the 2024 elections, particularly its governor’s race.
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The Tar Heel State could witness its most expensive governor’s race in history in 2024 as Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) lays the groundwork for a gubernatorial bid that his campaign predicts may cost $100 million.
North Carolina has reliably elected Republicans for president over the last few decades, but that margin has become increasingly narrow in recent years after Trump defeated Biden by only 1.3 points in 2020. Trump previously defeated Clinton by 3.6 points in 2016.