Riding the coattails of a favorable congressional map and negative Democratic headwinds on crime and the economy, Republicans scored surprise wins in New York in 2022 to wrestle back control of the House. In this four-part series, the Washington Examiner will take a look at how focused the GOP will be on the Empire State in 2024 and if it can stop the Democratic Party from regaining the upper hand in its traditional stronghold. Part three of this series will look at whether Republicans still think spending their resources in New York is the key to long-term success or if the return on their investment will be too low.
New York has emerged as a key battleground for Republicans in the 2024 election. The outcome of highly competitive House races will reveal whether the state’s red wave in 2022 was a fluke dependent on the congressional maps that will now be altered or a sign of political change in the Democratic stronghold.
While the promise of a GOP takeover failed nationally, the party outperformed in one of the bluest states in the country in the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans campaigned strongly in New York, aiming to weaken Democrats’ hold on the state and win over voters by highlighting a high crime rate and pushing for stronger immigration policies, two topics that remain at the forefront of voter concerns two years later.
In one of the biggest GOP wins, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney, was beaten by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in the 17th District. The five-term congressman’s loss could be a result of Lawler’s heavy anti-crime campaign. Lawler also promised to fight to secure the southern border, curbing the flow of illegal immigration and tackling the nation’s fentanyl crisis. Other Republicans who flipped seats held by Democrats included Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Nick Langworthy, Marc Molinaro, and former Rep. George Santos.
Republicans were handed a loss on Tuesday night in a special election contest to replace Santos in New York’s 3rd District. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi beat Mazi Pilip by roughly 7 points in a contest that had long been considered a lock for Democrats in the fallout of Santos’s scandals.
“In 2022, crime was a major motivating factor for voters, both Republican and Democrat, in New York state, and it remains a motivating factor. As does the migrant crisis that is currently affecting New York City and its surrounding suburbs,” Savannah Viar, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Washington Examiner in an interview. “By showcasing the extremism that the Democrats have on these issues, Republicans are in a really good spot going into 2024.”
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) secured the slimmest Democratic victory in decades over former congressman Lee Zeldin in the race for governor. Crime was key in Zeldin’s campaign; he blamed the Democratic incumbent and the state’s bail reform laws for violent incidents.
But past victories are not necessarily predictors of future ones. Republicans have a weight in the form of former President Donald Trump hanging around their necks, something Hochul and other prominent Democrats are keen to remind voters about.
In speaking about how Republicans in Congress still take orders from Trump, Hochul said, “If you won’t change the status quo, you now own it.”
“I’m going to make sure as governor of the state of New York and as the leader of the Democratic Party here — I have six battleground districts, and the Republicans running in those Biden districts are going to wear this,” Hochul said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.
“I’ve already put them on notice. I said yesterday. I called every one of them out. I said, ‘The 10 of you have the power to band together and demand this change happen in the House of Representatives, and if you don’t, you now own this problem,’” Hochul added.
David Laska, spokesman for the New York State Republican Party, told the Washington Examiner that Zeldin’s campaign proves GOP candidates can win in New York, despite Hochul’s 5.6-point margin of victory.
“Lee Zeldin’s outstanding campaign for Governor demonstrated that a pro-life, pro-Trump Republican can win in every corner of the state,” Laska said in a statement.
Although crime and immigration remain key concerns for voters, one factor Republicans significantly benefited from in 2022 may now be shifting in favor of Democrats.
The congressional map served as a catalyst in helping Republicans win big in New York and securing a GOP majority in the House two years ago.
In January 2022, New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel approved by voters in 2014 in an attempt to eliminate gerrymandering, deadlocked and failed to convene a new map. The Democratic-controlled legislature stepped in, creating a map that gave Democrats an advantage in 22 out of the 26 districts. State Republicans sued, and the Court of Appeals ruled the state legislature-drawn map was an unconstitutional gerrymander. A court-appointed expert redrew the lines, which resulted in Republicans flipping four Democratic districts and holding 11 out of 26 seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
But in December, New York’s highest court ordered new maps ahead of the 2024 election. The lines the state’s IRC draws must pass through the Democratic-controlled legislature before being implemented, setting up the potential to flip back the seats the Republicans gained.
“We know that the Democrats corrupted New York’s highest court in order to rig our elections. We don’t yet know what the maps look like, but if they attempt to re-gerrymander our congressional districts, we will sue them again,” Laska told the Washington Examiner.
With blurred congressional lines, the question of whether Republicans will continue to spend big in the Empire State is a live one.
So far, Republicans are already showing their fundraising prowess in New York. Fresh off capturing the House’s top leadership role, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) joined the National Republican Congressional Committee’s winter fundraiser in the Big Apple to support vulnerable House Republicans.
Republicans and Democrats wiped out spending records for the 2022 midterm elections, dishing out over $8.9 billion, a record-breaking figure. The biggest outsider spenders included PACs aligned with congressional leadership and party committees. Last year, the NRCC spent $9.3 million in eight districts in New York. The Washington Examiner reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for its 2022 midterm spending in the state.
“The NRCC is absolutely committed to New York. That can entail a lot of different things, but we acknowledge that there are a lot of seeds here that we need to hold on to, and we are absolutely committed to it,” Viar said.
As Republicans continue to dish out large sums of money to vulnerable candidates, Trump’s influence in state races could become significant while the former president moves to grow his support in the Democratic stronghold.
Trump has recently floated the idea of holding rallies in Madison Square Garden and in the Bronx, saying Republicans have a chance in his home state since a surge of immigrants has overrun the city.
“Nobody can believe what’s happened to New York,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News. “The people of New York are angry. People that would have never voted for me because I’m a Republican. I mean, they’re Democrats. Their parents were Democrats. They would vote for Democrats. I think they’re going to vote for me. So, I think we’re going to give New York a heavy shot.”
On Feb. 6, the New York Board of Elections voted to keep Trump on the state’s GOP primary ballot, despite groups arguing a disqualification clause of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment prevents him from holding office because he “engaged in insurrection.”
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Incremental wins for Trump paired with national problems filtering down to state and local levels might offer Republicans the combination of factors they need to succeed in the Democratic stronghold. The stakes to remain in the fight are high, but the reward — maintaining control of the House and flipping the White House and Senate — would be worth the risk.
“Joe Biden is deeply unpopular in a lot of traditionally blue states like New York,” Viar said, “and so Biden’s unpopularity is going to, I think, help showcase House Republicans’ fight against the migrant crisis and fighting against crime, and it’s going to showcase who’s serious about fixing these problems versus who isn’t.”