South Carolina commences President Joe Biden’s reelection effort in earnest on Feb. 3 with the first sanctioned Democratic primary. The contest, which he is all but sure to win, will be the first time in 2024 Biden will be on the ballot. As such, the state presents an opportunity to examine the electability of the incumbent president who has been plagued by low approval ratings across multiple measures and groups. Part One of “Biden on the Ballot” looks at his struggles with minority voters.
President Joe Biden heads into his 2024 reelection bid bleeding support from minority groups that were the backbone of his first White House victory.
Now, just days away from the first official Democratic primary election in South Carolina on Feb. 3, the incumbent president is seeking to energize black voters in the Palmetto State that he credits for reviving his 2020 campaign that defeated President Donald Trump.
There is virtually no question whether Biden will win South Carolina’s primary, but he does face pressure to maintain all-important minority support, especially going into the general election as a decrease in black and Latino voters could signal an erosion in enthusiasm for his reelection bid.
University of South Carolina political scientist David Darmofal predicts next month’s nominating contest will have a low voter turnout “across the board,” but noted that if it is down more among black and Latino voters than other groups, such information would be useful to Biden’s campaign.
Several polls have warned key voters may be abandoning Biden.
In a USA Today / Suffolk University poll released earlier this month, Biden only secured the support of 63% of black voters, a steep drop from the estimated number he boasted in 2020 at 87%. Furthermore, Biden trailed Trump with Hispanic voters, 39% to 34%. In 2020, Biden had the support of 65% of Hispanic voters.
In the Carolina Panorama, Oscar H. Blayton wrote last year of people of color, “It stinks, but we’re stuck,” going on to note that the most important priority is to protect “ourselves from another Trump presidency.”
Blayton said that “having to vote for Joe Biden is as grating as hearing fingernails being drawn across a blackboard, but I am out of options.”
Biden’s latest swing in South Carolina carries nagging concerns that the 81-year-old president wouldn’t beat Trump a second time if he’s losing his edge with critical voting blocs that made up a large portion of his base just four years ago.
But polling isn’t everything, stressed Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina Democratic strategist close to House Assistant Democratic Leader Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC). “Every single time polling has counted [Biden] out, he’s always demonstrated to the poll and the people conducting the polls that they do not know how to count,” he said.
And while the Democratic Party has expressed confidence in retaining and rebuilding Biden’s minority support, it doesn’t appear to be taking any chances.
Last week, the DNC announced a new six-figure ad buy in South Carolina and Nevada, specifically designed to reach minority voters, young voters, and rural voters. In a press release, the party said the new ad campaign was made with input from “diverse, local vendors and creatives who understand how to reach and engage the communities targeted through this campaign.”
The ad buy includes various modes of communication and reaches voters in several languages.
“Democrats are launching a historic effort to reach voters where they are and in the languages they speak to ensure we are building a broad coalition of support as we head into election year,” DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison said in a statement.
The DNC’s expenditure comes as the South Carolina Democratic Party makes its own efforts to shore up support among minorities in the state. In December, the state party announced it’s get out the vote effort, complete with roughly 50 new staffers across the state. Part of the campaign included a statewide bus tour to contact voters in every corner of South Carolina and not solely the populous cities.
The president and several Biden campaign surrogates have already made trips to South Carolina ahead of the state’s debut position as first-in-the-nation Democratic primary.
On Saturday, Biden credited voters in the state for delivering him the presidency during the South Carolina Democratic Party’s “First-in-the-Nation” celebration dinner.
“If you ever doubt that power to change America is in your hands. Remember this. You proved it,” Biden said. “You’re the reason I am president. You’re the reason Kamala Harris is a historic vice president, and you’re the reason Donald Trump is a defeated former president. You’re the reason Donald Trump is a loser.”
During the dinner, Biden made several overtures toward black voters, specifically touting what he has accomplished throughout his term, including the nomination of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and having the most diverse administration in U.S. history.
Prior to his Saturday remarks, Biden visited the Regal Lounge barber shop in Columbia, South Carolina, where he interacted and took photos with customers in the shop.
Biden visited the barber shop with Clyburn, a figure who is largely credited with securing Biden’s win in the state in 2020 after giving Biden his endorsement. Clyburn was also with Biden on Sunday when he visited the St. John Baptist Church, largely known for its role in the Civil Rights movement.
But while Biden works to strengthen his relationships with black voters in South Carolina, Biden also faces outside efforts looking to undercut his support with key groups.
A conservative group known as the Liberty Foundation launched an ad campaign last week specifically aimed at undermining the president with black Americans who disapprove of Biden, small business owners, and young independent-leaning voters.
An ad for the South Carolina market highlights a Biden administration proposed menthol cigarette ban, with a narrator telling viewers, “Community leaders have warned Biden about the unintended consequences of banning menthol cigarettes.” The ad flashes headlines to viewers regarding the killing of Eric Garner, a black man who died after being placed in a chokehold by New York City police when he was stopped for alleged illegal sales of cigarettes.
A strategist for the group claimed the ads are “high priority because we can test how or if it moves voters for the primary.”
In a recent Emerson College poll, Biden posted 69% in the South Carolina primary, as opposed to 5% for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and 3% for Marianne Williamson. But 22% still reported being undecided.
After Biden’s decisive New Hampshire win, despite not even being on the ballot, it’s likely his support has solidified in the Palmetto State.
Phillips took a shot at peeling off some of Biden’s support Friday, writing on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, “A growing economy is great, and the Administration deserves kudos. But with 70% of wealth held by the top 10%, and Black & Hispanic families owning only 24 cents for every $1 of White wealth, that growth accrues to the wealthiest families.”
But despite Phillip’s effort, Democratic strategists seem confident in Biden’s ability to draw from minority groups.
Not only do, “we know Joe, but most importantly, Joe knows us,” said Seawright, the Clyburn-linked Democratic strategist.
He referenced Biden’s recent visit to the Mother Emanuel AME church in Charleston, where nine people were killed by a mass shooter in a hate crime in 2015, which he said “set the tone” and reminded voters that Biden “has not forgotten about South Carolina.”
“He has not forgotten about black voters. In fact, I will go on record and tell you that I don’t know a president in modern history who has done more for African American people than Joe Biden has done in his three years, three plus years in office,” Seawright continued.
According to Democratic strategist Kaivan Shroff, “I don’t believe Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson — if she really is still even running — will siphon away even one voter of color from President Biden.”
Shroff added that he expects South Carolinian voters will be appreciative of Biden’s effort to move the state up in the DNC primary calendar, which he called a “decision to honor the party’s diverse base.”
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“This was a long overdue move that certainly came with risk for Biden and Democrats, but the president was steadfast in his commitment on the issue,” he explained.
According to Democratic strategist Marcurius Byrd, Biden “has done a lot” for both the black and Latino communities. “But the rapidly changing ways messaging is reaching different segments of people these days have been a challenge for getting the message of the successes in front of people when they have time to hear it,” he said.