Once considered the right-hand man of the top Republican leader in the House, Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA) is now at risk of losing his job altogether.
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) greenlit the newly drawn congressional maps on Tuesday, complying with court orders that the state must create a second black-majority district. But in doing so, the governor approved boundaries that make Graves’s current district much more favorable to Democrats — likely costing the five-term incumbent his seat in the House.
In order to add a second black-majority district, it was expected at least one Republican incumbent would be forced into a more difficult district to keep the other GOP seats intact. That was unlikely to happen to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) or Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), the top two Republican leaders in the House — leaving Graves all the more vulnerable.
It was also unlikely the map would attempt to dismantle the district held by Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA), as those boundaries are difficult to alter significantly. Leaving Rep. Julie Letlow (R-LA), who benefits from being a close Scalise ally.
Graves positioned himself against Landry during the GOP gubernatorial primary last year, endorsing former Louisiana Association of Business and Industry leader Stephen Waguespack instead. That later led to Landry signing the new maps that were fought for by his Democratic predecessor, which some have viewed as Graves being thrown under the bus to settle a political score.
Landry, for his part, said publicly he did not approve of the new boundaries. Rather, he insisted his approval was to avoid a more Democratic-friendly map being implemented.
“No one dislikes this redistricting process we are going through more than I do,” he said in a statement. “Unfortunately, we are at a point where a failure to act in the Legislature on redistricting will result in an Obama-appointed federal judge drawing, possibly three, new Democrat congressional districts.”
However, it doesn’t help that Graves has a rocky relationship with other members within GOP leadership despite once having a heavy hand in top negotiations.
Before Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker, Graves served as his unofficial right-hand man — often assisting the Republican leader in negotiations and acting as a close confidant. But after McCarthy’s removal from the top leadership position and subsequent retirement, Graves has been left on shaky ground.
Graves and Scalise have navigated an often-tense relationship over the last several years as McCarthy often relied on Graves as his aide-de-camp over Scalise despite the Louisiana Republican holding the No. 2 position in Republican leadership.
That tension became especially clear during the speaker’s race to replace McCarthy in October. Scalise launched a bid of his own, during which the majority leader accused Graves of spreading misinformation about the state of his health as he is treated for multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer.
“Then there’s some, you know, member — unnamed member of Congress — who’s naming somebody that might not even be a doctor saying he’s going to die in six months,” Scalise told Politico at the time. “That’s how bad it was.”
Scalise declined to weigh in on the redistricting fight as it played out in the state legislature, consequently failing to protect Graves from being drawn out of his own district.
Johnson issued a statement in opposition to the newly drawn maps, lamenting that the new boundaries amounted to an “unnecessary surrender of a Republican seat in Congress.”
“It remains my position that the existing map is constitutional and that the legal challenge to it should be tried on merits so the State has adequate opportunity to defend its merits,” he said. “Should the state not prevail at trial, there are multiple other map options that are legally compliant.”
The newly drawn maps shift Graves’s district from being rated as safe Republican to being safe Democratic, offering Democrats a key pickup opportunity as they seek to flip control of the House next year. Graves has decried state Republicans’ approval of the boundaries, calling it a “boneheaded” decision that cost the GOP their House majority.
“In doing so, [Johnson] has a two-seat majority and they effectively just took one of those seats away voluntarily,” Graves told the USA Today Network. “What happens if that causes Republicans to lose the House?”
Still, Graves has vowed to run for reelection despite his difficult reelection prospects, predicting the new map will be met with legal challenges and ultimately overruled.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“I expect with what’s at stake you’ll have one side or the other appeal and it goes to the 5th Circuit and ultimately the Supreme Court. … I don’t see any scenario where this map holds,” he told the outlet. “They solely took race into consideration, which you can’t do.”
The Washington Examiner has reached out to Graves and members of GOP leadership for comment.