New polling shows GOP has major lead on handling of the economy
Zachary Halaschak
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A new poll shows that voters trust Republicans to handle the economy more than Democrats by the widest margin in more than three decades, a finding that has major implications for the 2024 elections.
An NBC News poll asked voters which party does a better job handling the economy, and 49% said Republicans, while just 28% think Democrats are better. That is the largest lead for Republicans since the question was asked in the survey starting in 1991.
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The poll is bad news for President Joe Biden and the White House, which has been working hard to combat negative sentiment about the economy by touting “Bidenomics.” The Bidenomics push seeks to highlight the positive spots in the economy, such as strong gross domestic product growth and low unemployment.
Still, the push has had little noticeable effect on voters’ enthusiasm for the economy and their current economic situation. Inflation has largely overshadowed the other positive aspects of the economy, even though it has been slowing for the past year.
Inflation is now running at 3.7%, according to the consumer price index. While well above the Federal Reserve’s preferred 2% level, it is still well below the historic 9.1% point it hit in June of last year.
Still, the slowdown in inflation isn’t being registered by consumers. That is because prices are still much higher than they were just a few years ago.
Homeownership, long a sign of economic prosperity for working- and middle-class families, has also become much more cost-prohibitive in recent years. Housing prices spiraled quickly upward during the pandemic and now, because of the Fed’s tightening, mortgage rates are hitting highs not seen since the turn of the century.
Energy prices have also rankled consumers. The national average for regular formulation gasoline approaches $3.84. That’s the highest seasonal level in more than a decade. Moreover, gas prices have largely been higher throughout the Biden presidency, with the average price being $2.42 per gallon the month Biden was sworn into office.
And while there is little that a president can directly do to influence the price at the pump, Biden has nonetheless shouldered some voter blame for the higher prices. Republican messaging has been that Biden should have focused more on opening up more domestic energy production rather than pushing for a broad-based transition toward clean energy.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released over the weekend shows that Biden’s approval rating on handling the economy has fallen to a mere 30%, the lowest reading of his presidency so far. About 75% say that the economy is either not good or in poor shape.
All of this is important for the election and the economy is emerging as a major flashpoint, something that can be seen in campaign ads and at events like the recent debate between GOP presidential contenders.
Political strategist James Carville coined the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” to describe how former President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign should focus on hitting President George H.W. Bush on the state of the economy, a strategy that proved successful.
Republicans are already taking a page out of Carville’s playbook to hit Biden for the negative spots in the economy, like inflation, and use voter dissatisfaction with the economy as a way to win swing voters to their side.
The NBC News poll also discovered some other big interparty gaps. Aside from the economy, voters largely trust Republicans’ handling of crime and border security over Democrats.
Half of voters say they prefer having Republicans handle border security versus just 20% who said Democrats and 46% gave Republicans the edge when it comes to crime, with a mere 20% saying Democrats do a better job.
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Still, voters do think Democrats handle healthcare better than Republicans by a wide margin, 45% to 22%, and 46% think Democrats do a better job dealing with the issue of abortion, compared to just 22% who prefer the GOP’s handling of the hot-button issue.
Given the polling on abortion and healthcare, Biden and Democrats will undoubtedly use the issue as a cudgel against Republicans during the 2024 election, something that they already did with some success during the 2022 midterm elections, which came just months after the Supreme Court’s controversial decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.