Democrats at disadvantage in toss-up Ohio House race, poll shows
Cami Mondeaux
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EXCLUSIVE — Ohio voters largely disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance, possibly putting vulnerable Democrats such as Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) at risk as they seek to hold onto their House seats and regain a majority in the lower chamber.
Among voters who remain undecided about their vote for Congress, 68% say they disapprove of Biden’s job performance compared to just 21% who approve, according to a polling memo conducted by Cygnal on behalf of the Congressional Leadership Fund. That ratio puts Sykes in a tough position for her reelection bid, especially as she runs for a second term in what is considered to be one of the more competitive races of the 2024 cycle.
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The internal polling, which was first obtained by the Washington Examiner, shows a tight race in Ohio on the generic congressional ballot, with 46.1% of voters saying they’d prefer a Republican candidate compared to 45.1% who’d back a Democrat. However, only 38.7% of voters say Sykes should be reelected versus 43.3% who say she should be replaced, putting her at a disadvantage. Another 18% are still undecided, according to the poll.
The poll specifically cited issues that GOP leaders say put Sykes at odds with Ohio voters, including her stance on military pay and immigration. The survey pointed to Sykes’s vote against the National Defense Authorization Act earlier this year, with House Republicans accusing the Ohio Democrat of opposing a pay raise for military members.
The Congressional Leadership Fund also pointed to Sykes’s vote against the POLICE Act in May, which would have made the assault of a law enforcement officer or firefighter a deportable offense. Sykes was one of 175 Democrats who opposed the measure.
After respondents were informed of those two votes, Sykes’s electoral chances among Ohio voters slightly worsened, according to the poll. With those issues under consideration, 47% say they would back a GOP candidate compared to 39.7% who would vote for Sykes. Another 13.3% remain undecided.
“She’s less than a year into serving in Congress, yet Ohio voters are already looking for anyone other than Emilia Sykes to represent them. Sykes is in big trouble come November 2024,” CLF Communications Director Courtney Parella told the Washington Examiner.
Sykes’s seat in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District has become a top target for House Republicans in the 2024 cycle, especially after the seat was deemed to be a tossup by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Sykes will be vying for reelection in an R+1 district, giving Republicans a slight advantage as they head into 2024.
The Cyngal poll conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund surveyed 400 likely voters in Ohio’s 13th District between Aug. 23 and 24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.89 percentage points.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.