Biden bets on ‘economy good, Republicans bad’ reelection message
Naomi Lim
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President Joe Biden‘s reelection argument is emerging as he underscores his economic achievements in his official capacity and on the campaign trail.
But with his approval-disapproval ratings in Jimmy Carter territory, Biden is trying to avoid becoming a one-term commander in chief by also framing 2024 as a referendum on Republicans.
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Biden’s reelection pitch is not resonating with the public, according to Akash Chougule, government affairs vice president of Koch-funded political advocacy organization Americans for Prosperity.
“The Biden administration can have as many focus group-tested slogans as they want — Americans know when they’re paying more and getting less. Americans know when it costs $10,000 more for the same standard of living they had when Biden took office,” Chougule told the Washington Examiner. “Biden’s handling of the American economy is a record of failure.
AFP, which this week launched a 50-state, six-figure “Bidenomics is Broken” ad campaign, is among the prominent Republicans and conservative organizations undermining Biden as he seeks to promote his economic accomplishments. Former President Donald Trump, for example, asked United Auto Workers to consider endorsing him instead of Biden as the strike-poised labor union withholds its support of the president over his electric vehicle policies.
“While Biden deceivingly touts his failed ‘Bidenomics,’ families are struggling due to an upside-down economy,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Emma Vaughn said. “Every time Biden lies about his failed economic agenda, American voters become increasingly motivated to vote him out.”
Simultaneously, Biden seems mindful of public sentiment regarding the economy, empathy 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was criticized for not demonstrating. Clinton appearing out of touch with the electorate provided Trump with the opportunity to connect with blue-collar voters, who have traditionally backed Democrats, helping him win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
“I’m not here to declare victory; we got a long way to go on the economy,” Biden told union workers Thursday at Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia. “But I’m here to say we have more work to do. We have a plan that’s turning things around pretty quickly.”
“’Bidenomics’ is just another way of saying ‘Restore the American Dream,'” the president said. “That’s the American Dream. That’s Bidenomics.”
Biden’s approach is underpinned by polling. Despite June’s 3% annual inflation rate, a decrease from 9.1% last year and lower than the United Kingdom‘s June 7.9% consumer price index, only 3 in 10 adults told Monmouth University pollsters this week they perceive the country to be recovering better economically than its counterparts after the pandemic.
In the same poll, Biden had 41% approval among independents, a critical constituency for next year’s election, concerning jobs and unemployment as June’s job creation rate declined, although unemployment is similarly down to 3.6%. The president had 37% approval among independents related to transportation and energy infrastructure, as well as 26% for inflation. His overall average economic approval is 38%, per RealClearPolitics.
The public “consistently” displays evidence it is unaware of Biden’s record, one Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner.
“This is a major hurdle for the campaign’s messaging,” the strategist said.
In response, Biden and his campaign have upped their criticism of Republicans, attempting to turn a choice election into a referendum contest. The president, for instance, has escalated his attacks with respect to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA) and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), particularly the latter’s military promotion protest of the Pentagon‘s pro-abortion positions. Vice President Kamala Harris additionally made a last-minute trip to Florida to rip the state’s slavery black history curriculum. In head-to-head polling averages, Biden has less of a percentage point edge over Trump, 44% to 43.6%, amid the prospect of the former president’s second federal indictment. Biden has a 1.5-point advantage over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), 43.8% to 42.3%.
“Inasmuch as their argument is, ‘economy good, Republicans bad,’ the president needs to crystallize what these economic wins are,” the Democratic strategist added. “For whom. How much. Where. When. Show these people. Tell their stories at the zip code level, not just broad demographic groups.”
Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Vice President and former Senate Republican budget aide Bill Hoagland agreed, contending real earnings have been enhanced even though the Conference Board’s leading economic index indicates a recession could start soon.
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“It’s just a question of how fast are those wages distributed throughout,” Hoagland said. “There are so many external factors involved here as it relates to people’s feelings and attitudes, and that does impact perception about how things are going.”
“How much is the price of bread?” he continued. “How much [are] eggs? How much is gasoline? How much will it cost to fill up my car? If they’re feeling that that’s going in the right direction, that will bolster their overall feelings.”