House Republicans lose ground in latest 2024 election projection
Brady Knox
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House Republicans have lost ground in three 2024 elections, possibly chipping away at their House majority, political handicappers say.
Seats in Colorado, California, and Ohio have shifted in favor of Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report, eroding the chances Republicans can expand their already razor-thin majority in the House. The landscape for Republicans is a murky one, as initial fundraising reports show GOP candidates in battleground districts outraising their opponents. But a combination of a questionable candidate at the top of the ticket, a spate of legal challenges that will force new maps to be drawn, and constant infighting could make 2024 an uphill battle.
Here are the three seats where Republicans will have a hard fight in 2024.
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CO-03: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO)
Perhaps the most well known on this list, Boebert’s seat was moved from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”
The conservative firebrand faced one of the closest elections in 2022, with the race so close that it took days for the winner to be announced. Democratic challenger Adam Frisch is already gearing up for a rematch, raising three times more than Boebert in preparation for 2024.
Boebert inched out a victory over Frisch, winning by a mere 546 votes in an environment that was supposed to favor Republicans across the country. However, there were an expected 80,000 voters who didn’t bother to go to the polls in the midterm elections. Those voters, who lean independent, will make a difference in 2024, and Colorado has been marching to the left while Boebert has done little to moderate her politics.
The closeness of the last election, along with the record-breaking fundraising totals from Frisch, means that the House could lose one of its most outspoken conservative members in 2024.
CA-41: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Democrats have the chance to reverse a trend of Republicans chipping away at their dominance of California, as California’s 41st Congressional District has switched from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” Like Boebert, Calvert pulled off a narrow victory over challenging Democrat Will Rollins, who now seeks a rematch.
“I think we built a really great foundation for flipping the seat in ‘24, and I’m not masochistic enough to do it twice without knowing I can win,” Rollins told Politico in May.
Calvert’s district has gotten bluer due to picking up parts of Palm Springs due to redistricting, making his race even tougher.
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OH-01: Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH)
Republicans’ chances to retake Ohio’s 1st Congressional District are looking dimmer, as the Cook Political Report switched the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”
A recent Supreme Court order to have the state’s high court revisit a congressional map it struck down as an illegal gerrymander could hinder Democrats across the state. But a recent change for the state’s Supreme Court attaining a conservative majority means the map might not change until 2026, in which case other Democrats could be exposed to greater challenges but Landsman could see his lines remain the same.
Landsman is a freshman Democrat who unseated long-serving Rep. Steve Chabot, beating him by 5 percentage points.