Three things that could cost Republicans the House in 2024
Rachel Schilke
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Republicans are marching full steam ahead to rally voters and maintain their thin majority in the House, but several roadblocks could keep them from having the sweeping victory they’re hoping for in 2024.
With both chambers of Congress and the White House on the ballot next year, both parties are launching vigorous attacks against each other for what they believe are extreme policy agendas and corruption tactics to prevent either former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden from winning.
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Despite being able to tout some significant legislative wins, such as raising the debt ceiling and passing the National Defense Authorization Act, three things could cost House Republicans the election in 2024.
Donald Trump as the focal point
Trump is the Republican Party’s front-runner for the 2024 GOP primary. However, in the long term, he could be the party’s downfall due to his many legal battles.
The former president has been indicted twice: once in New York on state criminal charges of falsifying business records and once in federal court following special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents. Trump could face a second federal indictment and third overall after Smith reportedly sent him a target letter alerting him he was the subject of another criminal investigation — this one stemming from his actions during and after the 2020 election that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Republicans are split over how to approach Trump in 2024. Some are looking to move on from the former president and focus on a new GOP candidate, one who is not encumbered by so many personal and legal problems. More centrist GOP candidates may also be appealing across the board, especially after the 2022 midterm elections saw several Trump-endorsed candidates sweep away centrist Republicans in the primaries only to fall to Democrats in pivotal races.
Other GOP lawmakers and leaders, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), are digging their heels in and throwing their support behind the former president no matter what. While polling varies, some early surveys show that Trump may have a better chance of beating Biden than other candidates, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Redistricting maps sent back to the drawing board
Recent Supreme Court and state court rulings have complicated the maps for Republicans heading into the 2024 election. In June, the Supreme Court ruled against Republicans in two significant cases: Allen v. Milligan out of Alabama and Robinson v. Ardoin out of Louisiana.
On June 8, the high court ruled that Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map violated the Voting Rights Act and discriminated against black voters. With this decision, the state must redraw the map, likely resulting in new majority-black districts that lean heavily Democratic.
The redrawing of the map will have a significant effect as experts project five different 2024 House races could shift in favor of Democrats. With a razor-thin majority in the House, Republicans cannot afford to lose a single seat.
In Louisiana, the high court ruled that the state needed to draw a congressional map with two black-majority districts, as the current Republican-drawn map was similar to Alabama’s — violating the Voting Rights Act and discriminating against black voters. Because of this decision, Rep. Garret Graves’s (R-LA) seat was moved from “safe-R” to “toss-up” by Cook Political Report. Graves is considered House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) right-hand man, and he was the lead negotiator on the debt ceiling deal.
Black voters historically vote in favor of Democrats, meaning both of these rulings could give Democrats the edge to win back the House in 2024.
Republican infighting
Since taking the House majority, Republicans have not always seen eye to eye in several areas, including the debt ceiling, NDAA, abortion, and Ukraine.
Even securing McCarthy the speakership splintered the party, with at least 19 Republicans opposing him in the first several rounds. It took four days and 15 rounds of voting for McCarthy to become speaker of the House, the longest voting period for the position in modern history.
Then came the debt ceiling. Members of the House Freedom Caucus, comprising the House’s most far-right lawmakers, sought to derail several aspects of the debt limit legislation and continue to complain about the debt ceiling compromise between McCarthy and Biden.
Shortly after the debt ceiling fight, 12 Republicans banded together with 208 Democrats to sink a rule relating to gas stoves — the first time in 21 years that a vote for a rule failed. Far-right Republicans have not been afraid to criticize McCarthy and have even dangled a motion to vacate over his head.
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The NDAA produced another batch of infighting, with Republicans arguing over the extent to which the United States should be involved in the war in Ukraine.
The GOP’s splintering over social matters could also cause the party to lose significant support, as abortion and gun violence sit at the top of voters’ lists when heading to the ballots. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) has been adamant that the Republican Party needs to ease its stance on abortion and gun control to win over women and independent voters in 2024. The NDAA, which passed the House last week, is filled with restrictions on abortion access and transgender rights in the military, which could also drive centrist voters away from the Republican Party.