How the GOP’s narrow victory in 2022 could hand Trump the White House in 2024
Rachel Schilke
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The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be as close as it was in 2020, but this time Republicans have a key advantage — their House majority win in 2022 — that could secure former President Donald Trump the White House.
Polls show Trump, who is the GOP front-runner, and President Joe Biden, who will likely be the Democratic nominee, neck and neck or Biden slightly ahead. While polling does not always equal performance, it does lead strategists to believe that the outcome could come down to two factors: the Electoral College and Congress.
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A Center for Politics Crystal Ball report projected both parties falling short of 270 Electoral College votes and a possible scenario in which Biden and Trump finish the campaign tied with 269 votes each.
A tie in the Electoral College would have to be broken in the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a narrow majority. In a scenario where no party receives 270 electoral votes, a tie would most likely lead to a Republican president.
And that president could be Trump. While polling between Republican candidates varies from survey to survey, a recent Morning Consult poll showed the former president with a 38% lead over his top opponent, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), and an over 50% lead over other candidates, including his former vice president, Mike Pence.
DeSantis appears to be in position to persuade a key bloc — independent voters. An Economist-YouGov poll shows the Florida governor is polling better among independents when asked if they want him to run for president in 2024 when compared with Trump and Biden.
Still, Biden and Trump is the likeliest matchup. The Center for Politics predicts that having the former president as an opponent will put Biden in a better position to win, despite the president’s low approval rating.
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The path to a Republican victory does not start off easy — the Crystal Ball report shows that the effective “floor” for both parties is essentially the same: 221 for Democrats and 218 for Republicans for “Safe” and “Likely” columns.
Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin are expected to be the most competitive toss-up states in 2024, as each was decided by less than 1 percentage point during the last presidential cycle.