Welcome to Monday’s Washington Secrets. So, will JD Vance take the plunge and run for the Republican 2028 nomination? He has a huge decision to make following the midterm wipeout. Secrets has its own take on that question today. Plus, does the White House press corps have a sense of humor?
MAGAworld overwhelmingly believes Vice President JD Vance will run for the 2028 Republican nomination, but is far more divided on whether it is a wise decision.
That is the result of a straw poll of key players from the first and second Trump administrations, campaign staff, advisers, pollsters and leaders of allied organizations.
It comes as the vice president faces the biggest decision of his political career.
Some 26 respondents drawn from Secrets‘s contacts list of Trump insiders from the past decade said they believed Vance will ultimately decide to run. Only four said that he will opt out.
Yet more than a third (11) said he should not run.
And of the 19 who said they thought Vance “should” run, plenty of them hedged their “yes” by pointing out that his position as VP meant he has little choice but to press on, even if the midterm elections had made his brand more unpalatable and made the 2028 cycle much, much tougher for Republicans.
“Voters sent a very clear message: MAGA did not deliver,” said one respondent. “Anyone who wants to win the general election — on either side — will need to be an outsider to have real credibility.”
That view was disputed by a source close to Vance, who said some of the same old neocons were making the same old arguments.
“Anyone writing off the America First and populist wing of the party today must have a short memory,” they said, pointing out how the president had been written off by chunks of the Right before staging his 2024 comeback.
The responses show the currents at work in Trumpworld.
Vance is the clear frontrunner for the party nomination. But his role as vice president and his position as presumptive heir to Trump’s America First agenda could mean his reputation is tarnished more than other runners by last week’s devastating election results.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is among the heavyweights preparing a campaign. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly fielded calls urging him to reverse his public position that he would not run against Vance, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was last week forced to deny that he had begun recruiting a team.
In the meantime, Vance has begun signaling that he is his own man rather than a mere Trump avatar. In a lengthy social media post, he blamed the Iran war for the election disaster and said the party needed to change its relationship with Israel.
Yet he is still only 42. As he discusses his plans with advisers, allies and family in the coming weeks, Vance could decide that time is on his side if he stays out of a presidential election that could be unwinnable.
The source close to Vance added that there was no need to make a decision according to the media’s timeline. And if he decides to run, “proving himself by winning a competitive primary is far better than being anointed.”
Secrets received 31 responses to its decidedly unscientific SMS poll. Respondents were granted full anonymity and invited to explain their answers.
This is a selection of responses:
Respondent (Yes – Will run. Yes – Should run.) “If he doesn’t run he will show the American people he is only in it when the odds favor him and cowers when times are tough. If he has true conviction that he believes he should be POTUS, he needs to get in unapologetically, provide a vision for the future of our country… and because of the hole he’s in, he needs to get in early, delaying an inevitable run only wastes time and benefits his rivals.”
Respondent (Y/Y). “You only get one or two shots to seriously contend for the nomination. But the likelihood of winning as the nominee is probably 25%.”
Respondent (Y/Y). “Vance has increasingly distanced himself from the administration’s departures from America First principles, positioning himself to emerge as a clear America First candidate in 2028. Rubio, by contrast, is more directly tied to the administration’s foreign policy as Secretary of State, some of which is less popular with the Republican base.”
Respondent (Y/Y). “I think that if he skips, he has the potential of becoming obsolete in the four years in between – not even four years, six years. Because 2028 starts now and he would be a lame duck vice president. “
Respondent (Y/N). “He will run into the buzzsaw that is reality- he is not talented, likable, nor in step with the contemporary right wing. He believes the online Tucker Groyper-adjacent wing of Twitter is reality and it’s not.”
Respondent (NA/NA). “Option C – he should run for Senate in Ohio.”
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly. You can reach him at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.
Did you follow the dumbest news cycle of the past year?
On Saturday, the leader of the free world posted on his own social media site that he had offered the vacant post of White House Press Secretary to Dana White, chief executive of the Ultimate Fighting Championship and a buddy of the president. Just in case you didn’t know what was going on, Trump made it obvious by saying:
“I have requested that he bring with him assistants, even though some are not from our Country, of Islam Makhachev, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes, and Kayla Harris.”
In other words, he wanted some of the most notorious mixed martial artists to bring their body-slamming, knee-stomping skills to the briefing room. (And then he posted a video of exactly that.)
Cue anguish among the White House press corps. Some immediately said it telegraphed a more pugilistic direction for the comms shop. Unanswered calls were made to White (who played along, saying he had a meeting at the White House on Monday) and to the West Wing.
“The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment,” ran the rather earnest line in the Athletic, and elsewhere.
Guess what?
“Of course, I was kidding,” Trump said a little more than 24 hours later. “And you can see that because I put all of the great fighters as his assistants, that they’re all going to come to him. But it was just a little fun.”
More than 11 years after the president descended the golden escalator, long after we got to grips about taking him seriously but not literally, are we still doing this? It appears so.
Quote of the day
Have you been following the rape trial of Russell Brand in the United Kingdom? He was sentenced to 10.5 years in prison. The sordid nature of the case, Brand’s narcissism and the ugly nature of his defense were on full display at the hearing today, along with a deliciously dry putdown from the judge.
This from the Daily Mail‘s coverage:
His barrister Ian Winter KC, told the court his client “is a fundamentally different person today,” he was “extraordinarily famous” at the time and the final offense “happened very shortly after he met Katy Perry.”
The judge, Mr Justice Bennathan, stepped in and said: “To say ‘He got away with it for 17 years’ is not necessarily a huge piece of mitigation, is it?”
Lunchtime reading
Russell Brand’s Right-wash: Both Left and Right have to examine their relationship with a man who on Monday was sentenced to more than 10 years in prison after being found guilty of rape and sexual assault.
Inside the NYC members’ club where Republicans and Democrats party together: Albeit in separate rooms on election night. Anyway, maybe this is a sign of better times ahead …