Freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) fended off against Democratic challenger Tom Perriello in the general election in a closer-than-expected race.
McGuire received 50.2% of the vote compared to his Perriello’s 48%. The Associated Press called the race on Thursday afternoon.
McGuire was seeking a second term in Congress as representative of Virginia’s 5th Congressional District. Perriello represented the same district from 2009 to 2011.
While McGuire’s district is historically a Republican stronghold, election forecasters considered the race competitive enough to warrant a ratings shift. The Cook Political Report changed the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in September, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” around the same time.
The race rating changes showed how Perriello mounted a serious challenge to McGuire’s reelection bid. When he was first elected to the House in 2008, Perriello flipped the seat from red to blue for one term.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee bet its money on Perriello’s comeback campaign, placing him in its highly competitive “Red to Blue” program. The initiative, the committee says on its website, “arms top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue building winning campaigns.”
During his campaign, McGuire was undoubtedly tied to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings had been harmed by high gas prices and the Iran war. These issues were certainly on the minds of voters in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District when they cast their ballots.
In 2024, Trump’s endorsement of McGuire brought the Virginia Republican to victory against then-Rep. Bob Good in the Republican primary and later against Democratic candidate Gloria Tinsley Witt in the general election. The president endorsed McGuire for reelection.
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Trump carried the red district by 12 points in the 2024 election.
Also on the ballot for the general election, besides McGuire and Perriello, were independent candidates Cooke Harvey and Chris Register, who declared himself a write-in option for voters.