Democrats may win multiple House races this cycle without spending a cent on TV advertising.
Democrats headed into Election Day expected to wrest control of the House from Republicans, but several candidates who received little national attention or financial support from national groups won unexpected races in unexpected places during Tuesday night’s blue wave.
These accidental wins, many in seats that were rated as Republican strongholds, helped Democrats flip over 24 House districts, giving Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), likely the next House speaker, enough leeway to govern without the threat of Democratic rebellion.
They also suggest pollsters may have underestimated the American public’s dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s administration and willingness to hand Democrats back power of Congress.
Here are the top unexpected House wins this midterm cycle.
Indiana’s 5th District
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) lost her reelection bid for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District to Democrat J.D. Ford, an upset and an early warning Tuesday evening that the midterm elections would become a blue wave. Trump won the district by 17 percentage points in 2024.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the race to its list of “Districts in Play” in August, while the Cook Political Report changed its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the final days of the cycle. The House Majority PAC spent $200,000 in this district, but not until the closing days of the cycle.
New Jersey’s 2nd District
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) conceded in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District to Democrat Zack Mullock on Tuesday evening. The Cook Political Report rated the race as “Likely Republican.” Project 218, a Democratic-aligned super PAC bankrolled by Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and New Jersey Democratic powerbroker George Norcross, spent $1.5 million to defeat Van Drew, a former Democrat who became a Republican in 2020.
Missouri’s 2nd District
Democrat and Army veteran Fred Wellman defeated Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO), a seven-term member of Congress. Wellman will be the first Democrat to represent Missouri’s 2nd District in over 30 years. Wagner had a massive spending advantage over Wellman in this Likely Republican seat, according to the CPR. Wagner spent about $6 million, while Wellman raised $2.2 million and received no national support.
North Carolina’s 6th District
Freshman Rep. Addison McDowell (R-NC) conceded Wednesday afternoon to Democrat Cyril Jefferson. The district, heavily gerrymandered in 2023, was rated as Solid Republican by the CPR. Democrats did not spend a dollar in this district, according to AdImpact.
North Carolina’s 13th District
Democrat Paul Barringer defeated freshman Rep. Brad Knott (R-NC) in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, a race not considered competitive. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball had rated the race Likely Republican.
“First, I congratulate Congressman-Elect Paul Barringer on the successful campaign that he ran,” Knott said in an online statement. “I am ready to assist him and his team in any way going forward.”
Barringer received no outside support from Democrats and spent just $343,000 on TV, according to AdImpact. Trump won the seat by nearly 17 points.
North Carolina’s 14th District
Democrat LaKesha Womack took down Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) in North Carolina’s 14th Congressional District, in a race that was expected to remain safely in GOP control.
Moore, a former North Carolina House speaker, won the seat in 2024 by 15 percentage points. He was a chief architect of North Carolina Republicans’ congressional map redraw, which created more GOP-friendly districts, including his current seat. Democrats did not spend any cash on television advertising to boost Womack.
North Carolina’s 9th District
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, lost his reelection battle against Democrat and veteran Richard Ojeda, in one of the most shocking contests of the evening.
However, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Ojeda’s race to its “Districts in Play” list and launched a coordinated ad buy for Ojeda in the waning days of the cycle.
“I called to congratulate Richard Ojeda on his victory,” Hudson said. “I wish him well and look forward to working with him to ensure a smooth transition for the people of North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District.”
Campaign committee chiefs have seldom lost their reelection bids, but Hudson’s loss is the second time it’s happened in three cycles. Sean Patrick Maloney lost to now-Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) while chairing the DCCC in 2022.
Texas’s 9th District
Republican Alex Mealer conceded the race for Texas’s 9th Congressional District to Democrat Leticia Gutierrez. The seat located in southeast Texas was redrawn with the expectation Republicans would have no problem winning the district.
Mealer had Trump’s backing in the race and led Gutierrez in polls but was still defeated. Gutierrez was a first-time candidate who raised just $150,000 while Mealer raised over $2 million.
On TV, Republicans spent more than $1.5 million for the general election. Democrats, all told, spent $53,000. Trump won the district by 20 points.
Texas’s 23rd District
Democrat Katy Padilla defeated Republican and YouTuber Brandon Herrera in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District to replace former Rep. Tony Gonzales. The last time a Democrat won the seat was in 2012. Herrera outraised Padilla but still lost. The CPR had rated the seat as Lean Republican.
“We flipped a district Trump won by 15 points, the first Latina to represent this district. And made history!” Padilla wrote on X. “From San Antonio to El Paso, this victory belongs to YOU.”
Republicans outspent Democrats more than 2-to-1 here.
Potential upsets in the making
In North Carolina’s 5th Congressional District, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is fighting for her political life against Democrat Chuck Hubbard. The race is still too close to call but could be headed toward a recount. The two candidates are statistically tied at 48.7%, according to the Associated Press.
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Democrat and political novice Eileen Laubacher is narrowly leading Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. Laubacher leads the three-term congresswoman 49.15%-47.73% with 83% of the vote counted, according to the Associated Press.
Democrat Victoria Broderick leads Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District by just 280 votes. As of Oct. 14, Broderick had raised less than $100,000, compared with more than $600,000 raised by DesJarlais, who has represented the district since 2011, a sign that DesJarlais may have been caught asleep at the wheel.