Although many political experts expect Democrats to flip control of the House this midterm cycle, the Senate‘s fate remains murky.
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to retake control, a much harder task compared to the House. Polls show Democrats with narrow leads as voters prepare to cast their ballots on Election Day.
But Republicans have repeatedly stressed that polls have been wrong in the past and underestimate GOP support. President Donald Trump also made his final appeal to the public on Monday to vote as if he were on the ballot, hoping to help keep the upper chamber in Republican control.
“Deep down, I’m hoping that we flip the Senate,” one Democratic operative said. “I don’t think we will. I think we win the House.”
Here is the Washington Examiner‘s ranking of races Democrats are expected to win from most likely to least likely.
1. Georgia
Republicans had once hoped to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) from office this cycle, considering him the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for reelection, yet the Georgia Democrat proved to be more formidable than expected against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA).
Ossoff leads Collins by more than 8 percentage points, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s most recent October poll shows Ossoff leading Collins 48%-40%, with 12% undecided.
Collins has never held a fundraising edge over Ossoff throughout the campaign. He has instead relied on Trump to campaign with him in the state, as the Senate Leadership Fund, a top Senate GOP super PAC, paused ad spending on his race to focus elsewhere.
The Senate Majority PAC, a top Senate Democratic super PAC, also paused spending in the state, signaling its confidence in Ossoff to prevail.
Collins’s campaign also faced allegations last month that two campaign volunteers had ties to a white nationalist group founded by a former Ku Klux Klan leader.
2. North Carolina
Like Georgia, North Carolina is another burgeoning purple state that Senate Republicans expected to remain in GOP control this cycle. Trump hand-selected former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley to run after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his intention to retire.
But former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has run a low-key race without major gaffes. Cooper consistently led Whatley in fundraising and polling. According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, Cooper led Whatley by nearly 11 percentage points in the lead-up to Election Day.
“No one thinks Cooper’s going to lose,” the Democratic operative said. “No one thinks Jon’s (Ossoff) going to lose.”
Both GOP and Democratic super PACs paused funding in the state in early October.
3. Michigan
Michigan Democrat Abdul el Sayed faced a last-minute shock on Sunday after Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), his rival in the primary election, endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers’s Senate campaign.
Stevens’s endorsement caught Democrats by surprise and led to widespread condemnation from party members. It is unclear what impact it will have on the race. According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, el Sayed leads the Republican Rogers by more than 5 percentage points. He also leads Rogers by 11 points according to a recently released New York Times-Siena University poll.
El Sayed also raised $2.4 million after Stevens’s surprise endorsement, while he downplayed her actions in front of the press.
“At the end of the day, I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens,” he told reporters. “Because you know what? I’m just less interested in the politics of it all than I am in the policy of it all.”
Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist, said it was unclear how much Stevens’s actions will help or hurt el Sayed.
“But if I’m a betting man, I think [el Sayed] is going to pull it off tomorrow,” Ceraso said. “Like, he’s going to eke it out.”
But Republicans think the battleground state’s open Senate seat could flip their way. Trump won Michigan by just 1.4 percentage points in 2024. El Sayed’s anti-Israel comments have put Jewish voters and Democrats in a bind as Rogers aggressively seeks to win over their votes.
“I think the endorsement yesterday has a small effect, and I think it’s a close state, and I think there may be enough effect there to carry Rogers through,” one Republican operative said.
The fate of the 2028 Democratic presidential race could also be determined by what happens in Michigan.
“I think if [el Sayed] doesn’t win, it’s going to have a huge impact on the presidential election because him being a progressive and winning forces Congress and the middle-road members of the Democrats to go a little bit more left because he won Michigan,” Ceraso said.
4. Iowa
Trump won Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024 and has never lost the state in three presidential campaigns. But an unpopular Iran war, which has caused high gas and diesel prices, is putting the state’s Senate seat in jeopardy for the GOP. Iowa’s influential farmers could either sit out the race or flip toward Democrats.
Democrat Josh Turek, a centrist who has rejected any help from former Vice President Kamala Harris, has just a 1-point lead over Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), according to the New York Times poll, while RealClearPolitics’s polling average shows Hinson leading by just 0.3 points.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as a toss-up, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating on Monday from toss-up to Lean Republican.
Democrats are pouring millions into Turek’s campaign. Third-quarter Federal Election Commission reports show that Turek raised $13.9 million, compared with Hinson’s $3.3 million in the same period. Hinson also broke with Trump over the Iran war, saying it “needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.”
More than $207.3 million has been spent on the race by outside groups, according to Open Secrets, with $44 million spent backing Turek and $19.4 million spent backing Hinson.
But Republicans have also spent nearly $78 million attacking Turek, and Democrats have spent $66 million attacking Hinson.
5. Texas
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, faces a difficult race against Democrat James Talarico, who has Democrats dreaming they can finally turn the state blue.
The race is the most expensive nonpresidential contest in American history, surpassing more than $557.6 million in ad spending. Talarico leads Paxton by 2.5 points according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. The New York Times poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by 7 points.
Trump has never lost the Lone Star State, and Beto O’Rourke’s challenge against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) ultimately failed in 2018.
“History has shown us that we’ve had strong Democrats run in the past, and this is going to be a squeaker,” the Democratic operative said. ” But if I’m going by history … well, Talarico is not going to win.”
The operative also added that “I have had a lot of people telling me they don’t think he’s going to do it either locally.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating of the race from toss-up to Leans Democratic on Monday, while the CPR rates it as a toss-up.
6. Ohio
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has mounted a serious challenge against Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) after losing reelection to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024.
Brown leads Husted by nearly 3 points, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average, and by 5 points, according to the New York Times. A Suffolk University poll released last week showed Brown leading Husted 47%-44%.
The Ohio race is another contest that Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved from toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Running as the populist candidate, Brown has repeatedly attacked Husted as the face of data centers in the state and pushed to take on Silicon Valley if elected to office again. Cryptocurrency groups have spent $55 million working to block Brown’s reelection. Ad spending for the race crossed the $500 million threshold, according to AdImpact.
Ohio, according to the Republican operative, is “fundamentally a redder state than normal in the midterm elections.”
“And Sherrod Brown is the best candidate the Democrats could have picked,” the GOP operative said. “He gave them their best chance. He was seen as an unbeatable candidate until 2024. He is not that anymore. Husted’s a good general election candidate.”
7. Kansas
In red-leaning Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) was not expected to be in a competitive race this cycle. However, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, leads Marshall by 5 points, according to a New York Times poll.
RealClearPolitics’s polling average also shows Hamilton leading by 3.6 points over Marshall.
Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, and Republicans claim the state is too red to flip Democratic even if the Iran war and tariffs are also causing farmers in the state grief due to high gas, diesel, and beef prices.
“I think Marshall wins in Kansas for all the reasons we talked about in Texas and Ohio, those fundamentals,” the Republican operative said. “But of that trio of states, I’m probably most worried about Kansas, just based on some of their votes recently, like the abortion issue a couple of years ago and things like that.”
The state previously rejected a state constitutional amendment in 2022 that said there was no state right to an abortion, a blow to social conservatives. Marshall has also faced questions about his OB-GYN practice, which sued and jailed patients for missing payments. The state also has a Democratic governor in Laura Kelly.
But Republicans also point to the fact that no Democrat has won a Senate seat from Kansas since the 1930s. However, Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating of the race from toss-up to Leans Democratic on Monday, while the CPR rates it as a toss-up.
8. Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has continued to win Senate races in Maine even as it has voted for Democrats in every presidential contest since 1992.
After a dramatic campaign flameout from Democrat Graham Platner, who was accused of sexual assault, now Troy Jackson is hoping he can unseat the Republican incumbent. It will not be easy.
Collins has developed an independent streak and willfully bucked Trump on key votes. She broke with most Republican senators in April, voting with Democrats to advance an Iran war powers resolution that would withdraw American forces from Iran. She also voted against Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act due to its “harmful impact” on Medicaid.
But Jackson has attacked Collins for her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which indirectly led to the fall of Roe v. Wade, as part of his efforts to defeat her.
Jackson leads Collins by 6 points, according to a New York Times poll, and by more than 3 points in RealClearPolitics’s polling average. Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating of the contest from toss-up to Leans Democratic.
9. South Carolina
Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024, but Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death set in motion a Senate battle that is closer than Republicans expected.
Trump endorsed Sen. Darline Graham’s (R-SC) bid to succeed her brother in the Senate full-time and even successfully defended her against a primary challenge from Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC). Now, Democrat Annie Andrews is proving to be a much tougher opponent.
Fox News changed its rating of the race from Lean Republican to toss-up, but the Cook Political Report has the race as Lean Republican after shifting the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and then to Lean Republican in October as Andrews grew more competitive.
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The Senate Majority PAC is spending $750,000 on digital ads for Andrews, another sign that Democrats are taking the race more seriously. But Republicans do not appear worried that Graham could lose.
“I think Graham wins, and probably because the Democrats had to fight so many battles elsewhere, they couldn’t really make it the fight they probably wanted to make it,” the GOP operative said.