The top two Republicans in Congress are getting on board with President Donald Trump’s attacks on polling for the midterm elections, as nationwide surveys indicate the GOP is likely to perform poorly next week.
Trump has railed against polling as “fake,” particularly after it was revealed that a group included by multiple top polling aggregators such as the New York Times, called Wedgewood Polls, had fabricated its surveys in an attempt to shape the midterm narrative, including in Michigan’s Senate race.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) this week echoed Trump’s skepticism of polls projecting Democrats could make critical gains in Congress in seven days. Thune said polling historically “under-reflects the Republican vote,” while Johnson argued Republicans are less likely to participate in polling surveys, making their results less reliable.
“The polls are wrong,” Johnson said during a Fox News interview Tuesday. “CNN ran a story about a story about a week ago–they said that out of 14 out of the last 16 elections, the October generic ballot underestimated Republicans by an average of 4 points.”
“I think [polls are] even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys,” the speaker added, echoing his previous comments to the Washington Examiner this month. “They don’t want to give their information to someone on the phone. They’re calling it the partisan nonresponse bias.”
Thune said Monday that he also believes polling isn’t accurately reflecting Republican enthusiasm in November.
“They’re margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin,” he told Fox News Digital. “But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote.”
Earlier this month, Trump told reporters “the polls are fake” as he explained why he is going to Kansas to rally Republicans behind Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-KS) bid for reelection against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
“I’m going to Kansas because I won it by a lot… and he’s a great senator, Roger Marshall,” Trump said outside the White House. “I think he’s tied or up by a little bit, according to polls. Look, the polls are fake, but according to polls, so I want to make sure Roger Marshall gets in.”
Republicans’ framing comes as a series of polls have suggested key seats nationwide are up for grabs, indicating November could bring a blue wave. Those seats in the Senate range from battleground areas such as Michigan, where Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) is battling Abdul el Sayed, to red states like Texas, where GOP candidate Ken Paxton is facing a formidable challenge from Democrat James Talarico.
Majority control of the House could also hinge on a series of apparently razor-tight races, including in Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, Virginia, Kentucky, and Texas.
When pressed last week on whether he believes House Republicans are headed for defeat, Trump told the Washington Examiner, “I just don’t see it.”
“People say that,” Trump said. “[But] there’s such enthusiasm. You’ll see.”
In Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) is facing former Democratic State Rep. Manny Rutinel.
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, known as the most expensive House race nationwide for political advertising, Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) is facing Democrat William Lawrence.
In New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Republican Scott Singer is targeting Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL).
In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) is facing Democrat Rebecca Cooke in another expensive race.
Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Jen Kiggans (R-VA) are likewise facing tough battles for reelection.
Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District is featuring a race between Democrat Zach Dembo and Ralph Alvarado.
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The race in Texas’s 35th Congressional District has also become one of the most closely watched in the country, as Democrat Johnny Garcia takes on Republican Carlos De La Cruz.
“God willing, we will maintain the House majority this year,” De La Cruz told supporters in early October. “Let’s knock as many doors as humanly possible!”