Election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted Minnesota’s Senate race toward GOP nominee Michele Tafoya on Tuesday, while shifting two other Senate races in favor of of Democrats in Mississippi and South Carolina.
The forecaster moved Minnesota’s Senate race from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in a blow to Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan as she takes on Tafoya for the open seat. It has been one of the only Senate shifts in favor of Republicans from major election forecasters so far this cycle.
“Republicans have been bullish on Minnesota for months given the state’s welfare fraud scandal, and they hope that voters’ concerns about corruption will stick to Democratic Senate nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Recent polling has shown Flanagan slightly underperforming where she should be given the national environment,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
Tafoya cleared the third fundraising quarter with over $2.1 million in cash on hand, while Flanagan had over $1.5 million. Flanagan leads Tafoya by about a 3.2-percentage-point average margin, according to RealClearPolitics’s average.
Cook Political Report also shifted Mississippi and South Carolina’s races toward Democrats on Tuesday, marking a blow to incumbent Republican Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) and Darline Graham (R-SC). Hyde-Smith is facing a challenge from Democrat Scott Colom, while Graham is facing a challenge from Democrat Annie Andrews, in two states that have seen an influx of spending from national Democrats and Republicans in recent weeks.
Taylor said the two races are “further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South,” but that each have specific circumstances making them more competitive.
The forecaster pointed to Graham’s young political career, viral primary debate gaffe over a question on national security, and Andrews’s fundraising prowess as reasons why they are shifting South Carolina from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Taylor predicted the race’s margin “will be the tightest Senate race in decades” in the state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the late 1990s.
Andrews ended the third fundraising quarter with $2.3 million in cash on hand, compared to Graham’s $609,731. Graham leads Andrews by an average 2.7-percentage-point margin, according to RealClearPolitics’s average.
In Mississippi, Colom has seen an influx of support from national Democrats, such as former President Barack Obama and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and a $1.2 million investment from Senate Majority PAC, as he mounts an underdog campaign against Hyde-Smith.
Taylor pointed to Hyde-Smith’s underperformance in previous elections compared to GOP expectations and the Supreme Court’s recent decision in Louisiana v. Callais for the forcecaster’s decision to move the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
PEGGY FLANAGAN’S LOSE-LOSE SITUATION ON FRAUD CULPABILITY IN MINNESOTA SENATE RACE
“We’ve seen some closer-than-expected polling — though with Hyde-Smith still ahead outside the margin of error — but some Republicans worry she will again underperform the partisan baseline. Colom is also optimistic that the 37% of the eligible electorate that is African American will be particularly energized to vote against the GOP incumbent — and for a Black Democrat — in the wake of the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act,” Taylor wrote.
Hyde-Smith has led Colom by single digits in recent polling and boasts over $2.4 million in cash on hand, while Colom has $991,802 in cash on hand.