Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. Donald Trump flies to North Carolina for a rally today, so we look at the latest polling on the Senate race there, plus we have the latest court filings on the president’s lawsuit against the BBC. But first, does no one think they can win the 2028 presidential election?
JD Vance has had 18 months to get used to the White House and his role as vice president, feeling out the power of the presidency up close.
He is all but a shoo-in for the Republican nomination in 2028.
And even then, he says there’s a world in which he opts out of running.
“Of course there’s a chance,” he said during a CBS News town hall in Michigan, when he was asked if he might not throw his hat in the ring.
“We’ve got four little kids. My wife has never loved politics. She loves public service.”
Was it the sort of thing you have to say? Sort of: I didn’t choose to run for president — the people chose me?
Or is 2028 shaping up to be the nomination no one wants?
As Secrets reported recently, it is the type of election that Marco Rubio, secretary of state and another strong contender, thinks is best avoided.
And that is even before we have the results of the midterm elections in, with the expected Republican shellacking. Vance knows, as Trump’s vice president, he has most to lose from a dire outcome.
Yet Democrats are equally reluctant to signal that they are in.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is often hailed as the one to watch by pundits who like to signal they are in the know by putting forward a name unknown to most regular people.
He has repeatedly poured cold water on the idea.
“I have zero interest in running for president. I’m not running for president. I’m running for reelection to the Senate,” he said during a debate last week. He has also promised to serve a full six-year term as senator yet also somehow remains third favorite in betting markets to win the Democratic nomination.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), the favorite, depending on who you ask, has laid out the conditions under which he would not run. Essentially, he would not put his name forward if Kamala Harris goes for it.
And the former vice president has been vague, at best, so far, working the phones from her California home as she mulls a decision.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), whose name has long floated around discussions, was as unequivocal as Ossoff.
“I think there will be a robust group of people running for president,” she said earlier this year. “I will not be one of them in 2028.”
Some of it may be posturing. Anyone in a reelection race won’t want voters to think they will be a part-time senator or governor as they seek even higher office. And announcements make more of a splash when they have not been signposted for months.
The result is that the field is open for others to seize the headlines.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is known to be laying the groundwork, sounding out potential staff and developing a policy platform that distinguishes him from some aspects of Trump populism.
“It’s no secret that I want to be president,” he said on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s podcast in late August, a refreshingly candid approach to the race.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), who is best known for his hokey quotes, said “Why not me?” when asked. He told NewsNation that he would think about it if the field were made up of “goobers.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is another one playing down his chances of a run. He puts the odds at 50% even though every Republican in Washington seems to know that he will throw his hat into the ring.
On the other side, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) made clear earlier this year he wants to be “part of the conversation” when it comes to 2028. Along with this year’s memoir, it all points to a run, even if he has hedged more recently in order to campaign for another term as Pennsylvania governor.
Make-your-mind-up time will come fast after the midterm results.
The question for Republicans will be how to define their relationship to Trump and whether the next presidential election is even winnable. For Democrats, it will be whether they can agree on what they stand for before deciding who should carry the torch.
For months, everyone has been saying not yet. On Nov. 4, they run out of ways to say it.
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, whom you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.
Michael Whatley is in last-chance saloon
It’s clutching-at-straws time for Michael Whatley, the Republican Senate candidate in North Carolina. Trump heads there Tuesday for a rally.
A new poll from Elon University shows what a mountain he has to climb. It found that former Gov. Roy Cooper has a 13-point lead, suggesting that Democrats are all but certain to take the state.
But dive into the figures, and there is the faintest glimmer of hope for Whatley. The lead shrinks to 11 points when undecideds are forced to make a choice.
Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and professor of political science and public policy, said three findings suggested Cooper’s lead could contract by Election Day.
“First, Michael Whatley has a slight advantage among undecided voters when we pressed them to make a choice, attributable to more undecided voters being 2024 Trump voters than 2024 Harris voters.
“Second, Whatley voters continue to predict he will ultimately win, suggesting his supporters are still motivated to cast their votes.
“Third, Cooper’s lead among registered voters overall is smaller than his lead among the subset of registered voters who say they are likely to vote, implying opportunity for Republicans if they can motivate more of their base to turn out.”
Secrets verdict? It’s not nearly enough for Whatley.
Passive-aggressive legal filing of the day
Trump is famous for his delaying tactics in matters before the courts. What you might not realize is that it is a strategy he deploys even when he is the complainant.
His defamation suit against the BBC (for the way it misleadingly edited his Jan. 6, 2021, speech) is paused during the discovery element of proceedings amid a wrangle over when he can be quizzed on what went down.
His lawyers initially agreed that the president would sit for a deposition last week, but at the end of September, they asked to postpone the session, citing “matters of national importance.”
The BBC and its lawyers smell a rat. Their frustration at the president’s “foot dragging” is obvious in the wording of their court filings demanding that a new date be set:
“The BBC submits this Notice to raise newly available information regarding the ‘matters of national importance’ that Plaintiff claimed kept him from his scheduled deposition. As the BBC now knows, on October 16, Plaintiff attended and addressed a campaign rally in Dalton, Georgia, alongside Plaintiff’s favored candidates in Georgia’s upcoming U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections. Plaintiff subsequently traveled to his resort club and residence at Mar-a-Lago for a Republican National Committee fundraising event.”
Lunchtime reading
“A warning sign for polling” – Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short: Secrets brought you a granular version of this last week. Echelon Insights’s Patrick Ruffini goes at it with a broader brush.
America’s answer to John le Carré: The latest novel from David McCloskey wonders what would happen if relations between the U.S. and the U.K. deteriorated so badly that the CIA began working against MI6. (This piece is worth reading just for the anecdote about CIA luggage!)