Some Republican candidates in some of the toughest battleground races this midterm election cycle are defiantly sticking with President Donald Trump.
Many of them are in dire straits, with polls show them trailing their Democratic opponents and super PACs pulling spending advertising, but their loyalty to Trump is notable as some Republicans are breaking with Trump in hopes of saving their races.
Several Republicans, including North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley, Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton, and Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), either told the Washington Examiner they welcome the president’s presence in their state or appeared on the campaign trail with him.
If Trump returns to the Tar Heel State, Whatley “will appear with him publicly, as he has done in the past,” a spokesperson previously said. Trump is set to campaign in Greenville, North Carolina, early next week.
This month, the Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), canceled all its remaining ad spending in the state. Whatley’s campaign also pulled its ads from television as Roy Cooper appears likely to flip the seat from retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC).
That hasn’t deterred the Whatley camapaign.
“It ain’t like Thom Tillis has any juice with Republican voters in NC. We all know President Trump drives NC GOP turnout better than anyone else. We welcome President Trump and Vice President Vance back to NC to campaign any time,” Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin told the Washington Examiner in a statement.
In Texas, Paxton has repeatedly shown up to Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s campaign rallies in Texas even as his campaign has been beset by continuous damaging audio leaks and a new report that he partied with his extramarital girlfriend and two fugitives while in Dubai on New Year’s Eve in 2024.
A RealClearPolitics poll composite shows Democratic nominee James Talarico narrowly leading Paxton by 2.7 percentage points, 48% to 45.3%.
“Ken is obviously in a tight, a tight race. He’s a … new candidate for Senate, a guy where the far Left has spent well over $100 million trying to destroy him, and so we’re trying to build him back up a little bit,” Vance said on Tuesday while stumping in Texas. “He’s doing a great job. I think he’s ultimately going to win. But you know, I know from … personal history, when a lot of money comes against you, that can have an effect even in the red state.”
SLF has also paused ad spending in Georgia, where Republican Rep. Mike Collins is in a competitive race to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). But Trump is set to rally in the Peach State this Friday in support of Collins. Ossoff is comfortably leading Collins by eight points, 51.3% to 43.2%, according to a RealClearPolitics poll composite.
Those locked in closer races, according to the polls, have worked to find increased daylight with the president.
Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers and Iowa Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) have broken with Trump on key issues as they hope to block Democrats from retaking the Senate. Rogers broke with Trump over his trade war with Canada, while Hinson called for an end to the Iran war and subsequently lower gas prices. Both seats are rated as toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has not shown up to any recent rallies when Vance traveled to the state and touted her independence from Trump, which is necessary, said some Republicans. Cook Political Report rates her election as a toss-up, and according to a RealClearPolitics poll composite, Collins is trailing her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, by under 2 points, 48.5% to 47.3%.
“She’s got to separate herself from Trump, or she won’t have a hope,” said another Republican strategist. “You’ve got to distance yourself from somebody who’s just … unpopular. There’s no way around it.”
Having some differences with Trump is par for the course, said Anthony Holm, a veteran GOP strategist and former Paxton spokesman.
“Not everybody is going to align 100% on every policy, but they’ll all agree on 90%-plus, such as securing the border, lowering crime, lowering taxes, and making sure district attorneys prosecute criminals,” Holm said.
One Republican said the key reason candidates like Paxton, Whatley, and Graham aren’t breaking with Trump is due to his outsize influence over their careers.
“They owe their existence to Trump,” said a Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak freely. “Would we even know their names if Trump didn’t back them? No, so they don’t have the luxury of saying no.”
For Graham especially, Trump’s endorsement of her helped stave off a challenge from Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) after she was initially appointed to the Senate on an interim basis following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. She hasn’t put any daylight between her and the president as she seeks to stave off a challenge from Democrat Annie Andrews in a state Trump has never lost.
A Graham spokesperson said the South Carolina senator “would always welcome the President of the United States to the Palmetto State.”
In a sign of Graham’s potential vulnerability, largely due to her inexperience and a deteriorating political environment for Republicans, SLF announced a $5 million ad buy in the state last week.
Trump, however, remains confident his presence is helping the Republican ticket. He boasted about his ability to boost vulnerable Republicans Tuesday afternoon as he headed to Alaska to campaign with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK).
“I’m doing a tour right now, and I’m doing rallies. The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up,” said Trump. “Not just where I’m doing them. For instance, [Sen.] Jon Husted, I heard he went up 9 points yesterday. I did the rally for him, and he went up.”
Trump also mused about Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-OH) attractiveness during the rally.
“I’m right now going to Alaska to try and help Dan Sullivan. That’s a long way away, and I would only do it if I thought he was good, and he’s very good,” Trump added before his flight to the Last Frontier.
The president traveled to Ohio on Monday, where he stumped for Husted, Ohio gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, and embattled Rep. Max Miller (R-OH), who has been accused of assault against his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH).
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Trump will also head to Kansas on Monday as Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Cook Political Report rates Sullivan, Husted, Paxton, and Marshall’s races as toss-ups. Trump never lost Alaska, Ohio, Texas, or Kansas in any of his presidential campaigns.