Gov. Wes Moore’s (D-MD) embrace of an unpopular redistricting referendum has the potential to undercut Democratic momentum and motivate Republicans to go to the polls this November, a move that would counteract President Donald Trump’s expected drag on the party.
At least, it’s a possible outcome that has some Maryland Republicans crossing their fingers.
If Question 3 is approved by a majority of voters, the state constitution would be amended to pave the way for Democrats to net one seat in 2028 by gerrymandering Maryland’s only House Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), out of office. It’s a Moore-led endeavor that he’s made a pillar of his reelection campaign and one that, if successful, would put him on par with other potential 2028 presidential contenders like Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who pushed through redistricting pursuits in response to GOP efforts in states like Texas.
“This is our Battle of Stirling,” Moore’s GOP challenger, former state lawmaker Dan Cox, told the Washington Examiner in an interview, referencing the major 1927 conflict during the First War of Scottish Independence. “If we don’t win here, we will go into decades, potentially, of not having a voice in Congress because Wes Moore is trying to steal our voices by cementing this into the constitution. So, it’s an incredibly important reason for people to get out and vote.”
The latest poll, released last week, suggests the proposal is controversial among voters. If voted on today, it would likely fail. Just 25% of respondents in a survey from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, said they were in favor compared to 53% opposed and 19% undecided.
Among those in favor were 35% Democrats, 9% Republicans, and 17% unaffiliated. Those opposed were 74% Republican, 42% Democrat, and 59% unaffiliated. The undecided respondents were 20% Democrat, 16% Republican, and 22% unaffiliated.
Moore is pitching the amendment as a national issue vital to countering Trump and Republicans in states that have redrawn their congressional maps to elect more GOP lawmakers. The first-term governor has rejected accusations that he’s attempting to silence Republican voters by seeking an 8-0 all-Democratic congressional delegation in Washington. At the state level, Democrats hold veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers of the Maryland General Assembly.
“The power belongs to the people, not to Donald Trump,” Moore said during last week’s gubernatorial debate with Cox. “When you’re watching the president talking about putting federal agents around ballot boxes, requesting voter rolls from the states, we are watching a robbery of democracy in broad daylight.”
The political stakes are high for Moore in his Nov. 3 reelection to a second term, which he would not rule out leaving early to run for president. He needs a strong ballot-box performance in what is a safe seat and to convince voters to green-light the high-profile redistricting ballot question to avoid blunting his momentum as a rising Democratic star.
Fight Back MD favors the amendment and is among the outside groups dishing out money to sway voters. It downplayed the theory from Republicans that the measure could buoy their base or that the low approval ratings in the polls mean voters oppose the effort. Rather, Fight Back MD argued that the more Marylanders learn about it, the more they’ll support it.
“This is going to be a tough cycle for Republicans nationwide,” Fight Back MD spokesman Luca Amayo said in an interview, citing voter sentiment on affordability, Trump’s tariffs, and the Iran war. “And our strong sense is that it is deflating turnout for Republican voters, for the Republican Party.”
WES MOORE’S 2028 DODGE COMPLICATES REELECTION PITCH IN MARYLAND
The group’s latest statewide advocacy campaign kicks off Tuesday and is backed by a six-figure ad-buy for a 30-second spot urging Marylanders to “stop Trump” and “vote yes on Question 3.”
“This is how Democrats elect a Congress that will stop Trump’s corrupt agenda, which is making everything cost more,” the ad says.