Republicans are brushing off signs of an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in South Carolina, where President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate is locked in a statistical tie with her Democratic opponent less than a month before Election Day.
Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who was appointed to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham in July, is running neck and neck with Democrat Annie Andrews in a state Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024, according to polling averages from RealClearPolitics.
The tightening race comes ahead of a make-or-break debate on Sunday, when Darline Graham will face Andrews and Libertarian Kasie Whitener for the first and only time before early voting begins Oct. 19.
But Republicans insist the polls are misleading, pointing to similarly close surveys in 2020, when Lindsey Graham ultimately defeated Democrat Jaime Harrison by double digits.
“Darline wins by 10 [points],” Rep. William Timmons (R-SC) told the Washington Examiner. “Polling is nonsense. Same thing happened six years ago. It was nonsense then and it’s nonsense now. Jaime Harrison spent $160 million. Was within the margin of error 30 days out and lost by 12. Same, same, same.”
Timmons noted that in the final days of the 2020 race, Quinnipiac University published three separate surveys showing Lindsey Graham and Harrison tied. The late senator wound up winning reelection by more than 10 percentage points.
Even if the polls aren’t as off as they were six years, Republicans say their infrastructure in South Carolina is stronger than that of Democrats and the open governor’s race will help turnout voters.
But South Carolina Republican strategist Dave Wilson pointed to a poll last month from the Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group that had Darline Graham with only a 1-point edge over Andrews.
“That should raise a great deal of concern for the Graham campaign because the spread between the two is getting tighter and tighter, and Andrews is all over television in South Carolina,” Wilson told the Washington Examiner. “[Andrews has] raised money, she’s spending money, and Graham is going to have to do the same thing if she’s going to maintain what has been a lead, but that is shrinking very fast.”
A spokesman for the Graham campaign did not respond to the Washington Examiner request for comment.
Money, though, does not buy an election in South Carolina. In 2020, Harrison spent more than $130 million on his losing bid. Andrews, by comparison, has spent only $7 million to date. Yet, Graham also lacks the incumbency advantage and name recognition that her late brother enjoyed in all his races.
“While she is the current senator, incumbency is different when you are filling in or when you’re finishing a term for someone,” Wilson said. “Yes, you are the senator. Yes, you are theoretically and officially the incumbent, but there’s not the track record of incumbency that we see with other candidates.”
Sunday’s only general election debate between the candidates will present a test for the senator. Graham struggled in her primary debate against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and had a viral gaffe when she admitted to being “not that informed on national security” when asked about what the United States should do to protect Taiwan.
“Whitener, I think, is the wild card in this race right now because if there are any votes that peel off of people looking for an alternative to at least cast a vote, but they don’t want to vote for either one of these candidates, they’re more likely to be pulled from the larger pool of Republican voters than Democratic voters, which could give Andrews the lead,” said Wilson
Wilson predicted that Andrews and Whitener on Sunday will likely “tag team” on Graham, adding that “could influence what she says, how she performs, what she does, and what people think.”
“For Darline Graham, she’s going to have to prove this Sunday night that she can stand on the battlefield of a campaign with more than one opponent in the room and win,” he said.
Graham’s problems come as other Trump-endorsed candidates, including Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, remain in within-the-margin-of-error races. Paxton is, on average, in his own statistical tie with the Democratic nominee, Texas state Rep. James Talarico.
“I assume that Graham can win, but the [Make America Great Again] moment seems to be passing away,” former South Carolina GOP Rep. Bob Inglis, a longtime critic of Trump, told the Washington Examiner.
Trump on Monday expressed his continued support for Graham and criticized Andrews, a pediatrician who previously ran for Congress in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.
“Annie ‘Trannie’ Andrews is running against our wonderful Darline Graham for the Senate in South Carolina,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina.”
“She is in favor of Transgender for Everyone, Open Borders, Defunding the Police, High Taxes, a Weak Military, and will absolutely fight to take your guns away,” he wrote. “In other words, she is against our Great Second Amendment! Trannie is not for South Carolina, and South Carolina must show, in the upcoming Election, that it is not for her.”
DEMOCRATS FEAR EARLY VICTORY TALK COULD MAKE VOTERS COMPLACENT AND HAMPER TURNOUT
Regardless, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokeswoman Monica Robinson countered that Graham’s campaign has been “defined by embarrassing gaffes and full-throated support for the policies spiking the cost of gas, groceries, and healthcare for South Carolinians.
“Republicans being forced to spend money defending South Carolina shows how far Democrats have expanded the map while the GOP scrambled to prop up struggling, second-rate candidates as their disastrous agenda continues raising costs and hurting voters across the map,” Robinson told the Washington Examiner.