Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton sent a letter to donors warning that the spending gap in the Senate race between him and his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, could prove costly as Paxton trails in the polls.
Paxton touched on a slew of topics, including the challenge of rallying Republican voters after a “bruising primary,” in which Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a runoff following President Donald Trump’s endorsement, and outlined the need to infuse the campaign with more cash as Election Day looms less than a month away.
The donor memo notes that the GOP maintains a nearly $200 million spending advantage in the state, with Republicans having spent $329 million to the Democrats’ $134 million.
But, the campaign warns, “when we look under the hood at gross ratings points, the advantage is not as great.”
“Talarico’s campaign has spent or reserved a whopping $65M at lower rates compared to our $20M, and while our fundraising has been strong thanks to your support, we’re playing catch up with him,” the memo said, according to a copy obtained by Punchbowl News. “Given that disparity plus the weight on the outside, we’ve tailored our media buy to focus on where we are most efficient – broadcast – and are letting the outside groups carry digital and streaming.”
“This is why direct investment into the campaign is so critical: every candidate dollar on broadcast buys at least two times the television weight of a typical outside group dollar due to advertisement rates,” the memo continued.
The letter comes just days before early voting opens in Texas.
Republican spending from outside groups and super PACs has dwarfed that of Democrats, but candidates can purchase TV time at a considerably lower rate, allowing individuals to stretch their dollars further. For example, during Sunday’s NFL games in the Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin markets, one 30-second spot would have cost more than $2 million, according to GOP ad firm Medium Buying.
The letter asks for “continued support” to “finish strong,” with Paxton’s internal polling showing a tight race. Independent polling has shown Talarico up by a small margin.
Paxton recently announced a $18.5 million haul for the third quarter, as well as a $20 million ad buy, which served as his first major statewide ad campaign.
Talarico has raised nearly $70 million thus far, but has not yet announced his third-quarter totals. Talarico has outraised Paxton throughout the election cycle.
However, outside money continues to give Paxton an edge.
Texas PAC, an outside group linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has spent more than $120 million, pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC has spent $25 million, and Trump’s MAGA Inc. has spent nearly $30 million to boost Paxton, according to nonpartisan ad tracker AdImpact.
The letter lays out a pathway for Paxton to prevail, including getting Republicans to turn out and appealing to Hispanic voters and Make America Healthy Again voters.