The political futures of the top leaders in Congress will be determined by what happens on Nov. 3.
Each of the four leaders in the House and Senate is in a precarious position as they await the verdict of voters and feverishly work to increase or retain the power of their respective caucuses in the next Congress.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) all have to deliver results on Election Day. If they don’t, the leaders might lose their top perches on Capitol Hill. While the midterm elections will yield many winners and losers, the success of one congressional leader depends on the failure of their counterpart, so one or two of the big four could be on shaky ground next month.
A breakdown of what’s riding for all four leaders follows.
Mike Johnson
The speaker, who has defied the pundits by lasting three years as the top Republican in the lower chamber, has predicted that the GOP will actually grow its narrow majority. That would, Johnson says, allow him to spend less time being a “mental health counselor” as he would have a more comfortable majority. If Republicans retain control of the House, it would be a massive victory for the speaker, who likes to needle reporters when their predictions don’t come true. He would undoubtedly spike the ball if he gets to keep the speaker’s gavel, but political handicappers think that is Mission: Impossible. The party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two midterm cycles since 1938.
What will Johnson, 54, do if Democrats win the House? He won’t say, refusing to engage in hypotheticals other than his remaining as speaker. But if the GOP falters as expected, Republican lawmakers and pundits believe Johnson will not run for House minority leader.
While Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) transitioned from speaker to minority leader following the 2010 elections after losing a historic 63 seats, Republicans operate differently. If a Republican speaker loses his majority, he usually steps down from his leadership perch and subsequently departs Congress. Johnson, a genteel and religious conservative who has skillfully led an unruly conference, is not a bomb thrower, and that’s exactly what is required to be the leading voice in the House minority. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) would be leading candidates to become House minority leader.
A close ally of President Donald Trump, Johnson is going all out to save his majority by raising an impressive amount of cash and crisscrossing the country to make the case for Republican candidates. Trump and Johnson talk often, and the president would surely want Johnson to stay on as speaker. Johnson rarely breaks with Trump publicly, though he occasionally pushes back privately.
Hakeem Jeffries
Expectations are sky high for House Democrats, especially as Trump’s approval ratings have sunk into the high 30s. The 2024 election was a disaster for Democrats, but especially for Jeffries, who is aiming to become the first black speaker in 2027. Two years ago, Jeffries didn’t guarantee a majority, though Pelosi, who is retiring after 2026, and even some Republicans predicted Democrats would win the House. But they fell just short. This cycle, Jeffries, 56, has said Democrats will “definitely” win control of the lower chamber. If not, there will be a huge outcry on the Left, and Jeffries would likely attract a challenge to his leadership post.
If he does become speaker, Jeffries would probably have a small or relatively small majority that would be difficult to manage. Running the House would be a good problem for Jeffries to have, but he has stumbled at times this year as minority leader, and there would be plenty of questions on whether he’s ready for primetime as speaker. Is he ready to get out of Pelosi’s shadow? Can he go toe-to-toe with Trump? How would Jeffries lead a caucus that would have socialists as well as centrist Democrats who represent districts that Trump won in 2024?
John Thune
Thune is respected by his Senate Republican colleagues, but he and Trump have clashed on many occasions, most notably on the SAVE America Act. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Thune nuke the filibuster and pass the voter ID bill. Thune has steadfastly declined, noting that “25 to 30” GOP senators favor keeping the filibuster. Trump, meanwhile, has declined to back Thune for Senate GOP leader in 2027, and should Democrats win the Senate, the president and his allies would point the finger of blame at Thune.
Thune recently indicated he would run for Senate GOP leader in the 120th Congress.
Thune, 65, has not committed to seeking reelection in 2028, and it’s no slam dunk that he seeks one more term. In 2022, Thune wrestled with the decision to seek a fourth term and didn’t make a final decision until January of that year. Back then, Trump publicly criticized Thune for certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election and publicly suggested then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) should challenge him in a primary. That didn’t happen, but Trump did help take out two of Thune’s colleagues, Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX), in primaries this year. Would Trump take on Thune in 2028 in the last year of his presidency?
Thune has been exasperated with Trump at times, and it’s unclear whether the president and the majority leader want to work with each other for the next two-plus years. Thune passed his first major legislative test as majority leader when he got the votes to pass the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but preserving his majority on Nov. 3 could be just as difficult, if not more. It’s entirely possible that Thune remains the top Senate Republican and runs for reelection in two years, though it’s hard to see him following Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) lead and serving in the upper chamber beyond 2034.
Chuck Schumer
The Senate minority leader, 75, is also up for reelection in 2028, and he hasn’t said whether he will seek a sixth Senate term. Schumer attracted a ton of criticism this Congress from fellow Democrats, and a few Democratic candidates this year have vowed not to vote for him as Senate leader. Schumer also has to look over his shoulder as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has refused to rule out a run for his seat. Schumer’s grip on his leadership position is tenuous to say the least, though he has recruited strong candidates to run this year.
Winning the Senate amid a tough map for the party would undoubtedly silence many Democratic critics. Not winning the majority could trigger a leadership challenge as well as a primary challenge, even if Ocasio-Cortez opts to run for the White House. Schumer has been in public office since 1975, and leaving the Senate would be difficult for him. Yet, various factions of the Democratic Party want to move on. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) could try to become the Senate’s top Democrat, but like Ocasio-Cortez, he is eyeing a White House bid in 2028.
Another complication for Schumer is Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), who now has strong approval ratings in his home state among Republicans and weak numbers from Democrats. Fetterman, who is up for reelection in 2028, has said he’ll never become a Republican. But he could bolt from the Democratic Party and caucus with the GOP as an independent. That would swing back control of the Senate to Republicans even if Democrats net four seats in the midterm elections.
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Schumer has said nice things about Fetterman, who is loathed by the Democratic base. If Schumer is too nice to Fetterman, that could hurt him in a Democratic primary. If Schumer doesn’t court Fetterman, he could lose his newfound majority in an instant.
In an interview with Politico last week, Schumer said he will run to remain the Senate’s top Democrat after the midterm elections: “I am running for reelection for leader. Period.”