Republican concerns are intensifying about the party’s ability to block Democrats from flipping Texas’s Senate seat blue, as polls continue to paint a razor-thin picture of the race.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove are among those who raised concerns over the weekend and criticized President Donald Trump’s decision to endorse Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as the nominee against Democratic candidate James Talarico, instead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
Tillis said Trump’s move to endorse Paxton over Cornyn in the GOP’s tight Senate primary in May was a mistake, allowing Democrats more room to attack the Republican candidate, who has long been mired in scandal. Paxton was impeached by the state House in 2023 over accusations of corruption, bribery, and abuse of power, before the state Senate later acquitted him of all charges.
“John Cornyn’s a great member of the U.S. Senate. Paxton has his challenges. We would not be spending tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas if Cornyn had won,” Tillis said during a CNN interview. “In the case of Cornyn, he made a colossal mistake.”
Former Cornyn campaign spokesman Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based GOP strategist, told the Washington Examiner Monday that Cornyn “would be easily ahead of James Talarico, so the decision to support Ken Paxton has proven unwise.”
“Paxton can still win, but as Yogi Berra once said, ‘It’s getting late early.’ Meanwhile, outside groups are spending $100M in September alone to try to save Paxton. The Senate majority hangs in the balance, and we are wasting precious resources in Texas,” he added.
Former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) also raised concerns about backing Paxton. Manchin is a centrist politician who spent decades as a Democrat before switching to become an independent in 2024, just months before his last term in the Senate ended.
“I don’t know that young man, and things he’s said I’m discouraged about, but I can tell you, if character means anything, you can’t vote for Ken Paxton, if character means anything, because he has none,” Manchin said when pressed about Talarico during a NewsNation interview. “So, you have a situation there.”
Rove, known as an establishment-style Republican strategist, said over the weekend that if Cornyn had been the GOP nominee in Texas, “this race would be over.”
“But when you got a guy who’s got multiple girlfriends, $200,000 worth of improvements in his house from a corrupt business guy for whom he does favors … and now it’s in the court of public opinion,” he said at The Texas Tribune Festival. “If this were not out there, this would be a normal Republican versus Democrat.”
Republican fears come as the party has pumped a historic amount of money into the race. Total Republican spending in the general election has reached over $140 million, according to the Texas Tribune, while Democrats in the state and nationwide have also funneled massive funds into Talarico’s campaign.
Last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) launched a new political action committee aimed at helping Talarico, demonstrating that Democrats view the Texas Senate seat as an increasingly viable pickup opportunity.
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Polls, though known to be faulty, have painted a razor-thin race, with most showing Talarico holding a slim lead.
The Washington Examiner reached out to Paxton’s campaign for comment.