The Kansas Senate race should be an easy seat for Republicans to hold.
Democrats haven’t elected a senator to Kansas in 94 years, and in the last competitive race, in 2020, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) ended up winning by roughly 11 points.
But Republicans may be bleeding support in Kansas amid rising fuel prices in the the heavily agricultural state due to the Iran war. Adding to the worry is a recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement operation launched across the state, which some say is disrupting the farming industry.
The Kansas Livestock Association issued a joint statement with the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association saying they are “closely monitoring” the situation and warning that the activity has delayed cattle shipments and disrupted the supply chain.
“These disruptions come at a time of enhanced focus and pressure on the cattle and beef supply chain,” the organizations wrote. “They are a costly and unnecessary impact to cattle producers already suffering from unwelcome political interference to both the markets as well as the physical supply chain. Frustratingly, the harm these actions cause to cattle producers last for days and weeks after such operations conclude.”
Both Kansas senators, including Marshall, who suddenly finds himself in a competitive race, addressed the ICE operation on social media.
“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement,” Marshall posted on X. “Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe.”
But Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) is seeking to dampen concerns surrounding the raids, saying they are not “wide scale.”
“In part, it’s to report that we are paying attention,” Moran told the Washington Examiner. “But two, it’s to make them understand or allow them to understand, at least we’ve been assured, that this is not wide scale. It’s related to arrests — specific individuals who are subject to an arrest warrant.”
Democrats nominated Adam Hamilton, a pastor who runs the largest Methodist church in the country, to take on Marshall. Hamilton this week issued a statement condemning ICE’s actions.
“Something has gone very wrong when schools are warning about children going uncared for and businesses are closing in fear,” Hamilton posted on X earlier this week.
“The leaders and law enforcement of Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal even announced they had no idea what was happening and pleaded for more information from their government,” he continued. “One city commissioner said people are being stopped at random in the street. This is not how Washington should be treating Kansans. Federal enforcement should focus on serious criminals in coordination with local officials and Kansas families shouldn’t live in fear.”
Hamilton has struck a moderate tone in his campaign — a necessity for a Democrat trying to win a state President Donald Trump carried by 16 points. In a show of the political tightrope he must walk, he released a video titled, “Am I a liberal or conservative? Yes, of course!”
“To be a liberal means to be generous of spirit, open to seeing things with new eyes, and open to reform. To be conservative means holding on to values or beliefs that are really important,” Hamilton says in the video. “We can be both of these things at the same time.”
ICE raids are not the only issue driving concern among Republicans about Hamilton’s candidacy.
The race has come into the spotlight in recent weeks because of an eyebrow-raising Emerson College poll that found Hamilton leading Marshall 45% to 43%.
And Democrats are going after Marshall’s career in the medical field. The New York Times reported that Marshall sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical bills during his career as an OB-GYN, with 81 of those patients arrested for missing court dates, according to the newspaper’s review of Kansas court records.
Hamilton’s recent ad echoes that controversy.
“One evening, I see lights. I open the door, and it’s a police officer,” a woman says in the ad. “They arrested me because I didn’t make a $50 payment to Roger Marshall. I was eight months pregnant, and I said, ‘Please, do not handcuff me in front of my 2-year-old daughter.’ Roger Marshall preyed on the low-income families of Kansas. The healthcare system is broken, but not for Roger Marshall. He’s absolutely profiting from it.”
In a sign of the political environment in Kansas, Vice President JD Vance and MAGA Inc. were recently deployed to the state to boost Marshall.
“In Doc Marshall, you have a man who devoted his life to delivering babies and making sure that moms and children from every walk of life were safe and had the healthcare that they need,” Vance said at Webco Manufacturing. “So I ask you this November to stand for a man who stood for moms and babies, to stand for a man who stood for all Kansas. Let’s stand for Doc Marshall and send the crazy people packing, ladies and gentlemen. Elect Roger Marshall to the U.S. Senate.”
The Senate is a tougher lift than the House for Democrats, who must flip four seats, many in red terrain, to win the majority. The map has continued to shift in their favor, with six potential pickup opportunities, including Kansas, where Hamilton is gaining momentum.
David Sivak contributed to this article.