Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine, according to a new poll that also found Democrats with leads in two key Senate races as the party seeks to retake the chamber in November.
The New York Times/Siena College poll found Collins, a longtime staple in Maine politics, leading Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters. The survey was conducted almost entirely before a ProPublica report published Tuesday that detailed an FBI investigation into allegations involving Collins and a defense contractor. Collins’s office has vigorously denied the allegations.
The Maine contest is one of Democrats’ top opportunities to flip a Republican-held Senate seat. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the Pine Tree State in the 2024 presidential election, giving Democrats confidence that the state’s electorate could provide a path to defeating Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
Democrats argue Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, can capitalize on dissatisfaction with Collins and President Donald Trump. Republicans, meanwhile, have sought to portray Jackson as too liberal for the state while emphasizing Collins’s long record of focusing on Maine-specific interests and her willingness to break with Trump on some issues.
The race could also be affected by Jackson’s late entry, who rose to the nomination after the Democrats’ original nominee withdrew. Polling in Maine can be challenging because of the state’s relatively small population and large rural areas.
Meanwhile, Democrats have gained ground in several other Senate contests as economic concerns dominate the campaigns across the country.
The Cook Political Report moved the Georgia, Kansas, and South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats this week, citing what it described as a “very blue environment” taking shape nationally. Cook nevertheless said the Senate remains a toss-up, noting that Democrats still face a difficult path to winning the four seats they need to take control of the chamber.
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The New York Times/Siena poll found Democrats leading by 5 points in both Michigan and New Hampshire, while independents remained closely divided in Michigan and Maine. In New Hampshire, independents favored Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas by 10 points.
Across the three Senate races, economic concerns far outweighed foreign policy as a factor in voters’ decisions. Thirty-six percent said issues including jobs, inflation, and the cost of living were the most important factor in their vote, compared with 8% who cited foreign policy, including the war in Iran or the Israel-Gaza conflict.