Kansas Democratic Senate Candidate Adam Hamilton pulled ahead of his competitor, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), in a new poll, an unusual jump in a state that heavily favored President Donald Trump in the past three presidential elections.
A new poll from Emerson College found Hamilton with a 2-point advantage over Marshall, with Libertarian candidate David Graham splitting the vote. The survey was conducted among 750 likely voters with a 3.6% margin of error.
Hamilton’s lead marks a shift from other surveys of the race following the primary elections. A poll conducted at the beginning of the month found Marshall with a 5-point lead over the Democrat. Even a poll sponsored by the Democratic Party’s campaign arm places Marshall in the lead.
The Emerson poll found Hamilton performing particularly well among independent voters, who backed the Democrat 43% to 27% over Marshall. Graham received 4% among likely voters, while 8% remained undecided.
“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The results also showed broader dissatisfaction with both Marshall and his close ally, Trump. Marshall was viewed favorably by 41% of likely voters and unfavorably by 48%. Trump’s job performance received approval from 40% of respondents, while 53% disapproved.
Former Kansas Republican Gov. Bill Graves recently endorsed Hamilton over Marshall in the race. Graves accused the incumbent of having “turned his back on Kansas” during his first term. The former governor has previously made cross-party endorsements, including Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) in her 2018 and 2022 campaigns, both of which she won.
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The race has drawn national attention since Hamilton’s primary victory. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report moved the contest from their previous “safe” or “solid” Republican ratings to “likely Republican,” but they both continue to characterize the race as an uphill climb for Democrats.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, while Democrats have won several recent gubernatorial elections in the state.